Julien Blouin — Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Yeah. Thank you for taking my question. We've seen others in the sector sell either full MOB portfolios or sell JV stakes in portfolios. Just given the strength of the interest out there, is there anything holding you back from recycling capital out of Outpatient Medical and into senior housing? How do you think sort of the cap rates on your portfolio would compare to some of the ones that are out there?
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
Morning, Julien. Debbie here. Thanks for the question. We've always taken the view that we'll strongly consider any transaction that we believe creates long-term value for shareholders, and we've proven that in the past with our SNF disposition and spinoff. We continue to evaluate our portfolio. Our strategy is very focused on expanding our SHOP footprint, and that's exactly what we're doing. That's how we're really thinking about strategic opportunities.
Julien Blouin — Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Got it. Thank you. Justin, at what level of sort of portfolio-wide same store SHOP occupancy do you think you could start to see same store RevPOR kind of accelerate towards maybe the 6% or 7% range, let's say? How far from a portfolio-wide sort of RevPOR acceleration do you think you are currently?
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
I mentioned in my prepared remarks, I talked about this, that half of our U.S. SHOP same store portfolio is 90% occupied or more. That group grew NOI 25% year-over-year. The RevPOR is 6%. It's obviously bringing the average up across the portfolio in terms of NOI growth, in terms of RevPOR growth. Occupancy growth was really strong in that group as well, on the better side of our average.
I think that's really encouraging as you think about two things. One is we have a really long runway to go. We're 87% occupied across SHOP. To know that when we get to that kind of first phase, I call it the first destination, which is to break that 90% barrier, there's a lot of growth opportunity that we're proving is yet to come.
It's a tremendously large proof point of the growth opportunity in the 90-plus occupied group.
Julien Blouin — Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Got it. Thank you.
Jeff Spector — Analyst, Bank of America
Great. Thank you. I'm sorry if I missed this. Can you talk about the occupancy levels from June versus April and May? Was there an acceleration or did it maintain the same level of growth?
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
Sure. What I said in my remarks were, we started the year with a 270 guide. We've raised it to 300 basis points of growth year-over-year because we started the year really strong. We had 310 in the first, we had 300 in the second. That means we need around 300 for the rest of the year. We have good visibility into the key selling season. It's on track.
There's good sales activity on the ground already in the quarter. Good occupancy growth already in the quarter, and that's supporting our full-year guide expectation of around 300 basis points with the knowledge that we have a long way to go really to get through the rest of the key selling season. So far so good.
Jeff Spector — Analyst, Bank of America
Okay, great. Thank you. Sticking with occupancy, given that has been, for us at least, the top incoming question from investors. I assume that people are debating on are things topping out or not. Justin, of course, you talked about the lift in occupancy. I think you said that the same store today around 83%, roughly half the community is already above 90%. I guess, could you provide a little bit more context around your opening remarks and occupancy over the coming years? I think you also said 10% today at full occupancy. I don't know if you've talked about where you see that reaching 25% or 50% over the coming years. Thank you.
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
I really appreciate the question because it's a mission of ours to prove that stabilization is a much higher number than what we used to think it was traditionally. One of the proof points we talked about was the 90-plus % occupied communities. Another one I mentioned is the 10% of our portfolio that is at or near 100% occupied.
That group is also delivering very strong NOI growth and is benefiting from rate growth even higher, around 7% RevPAR, and has around a 20% NOI growth as well in the U.S. By the way, two-thirds of those in that category are in the U.S. I think everyone knows we have a highly occupied Canada, but our U.S. is demonstrating that we can get all the way to 100% occupied in our communities.
That's been a key part of our thesis as we talk about this multi-year growth opportunity. Now it's really pleasing to be able to show these proof points and demonstrate the NOI growth opportunity as we get into these higher occupancy bands. Just a reminder, we're still only 87% across our SHOP portfolio. You mentioned this, the part that's 83% is our non-same store. That's about 25% of our NOI right now. 75% is in the same store. The 83% has a long runway ahead, combining for 87, long runway ahead. When we get to this destination of 90% plus, really strong potential for NOI growth.
Jeff Spector — Analyst, Bank of America
Thank you.
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
Justin's mission, I think, is to prove to everyone that in this new paradigm, we can get into the close to 100% occupied over the years.
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
Exactly.
Jeff Spector — Analyst, Bank of America
Great. Thank you.
David Rodgers — Analyst, Raymond James
Good morning, everybody. Wanted to ask about the SHOP flow-through that's in the presentation. Obviously, you had a nice pickup in occupancy that helped drive a pretty big pickup in the flow-through from the last couple of years and even the first quarter. You had a similar occupancy improvement, I think, from 2024 to 2025, but no real pickup in flow-through. Justin, is it just that you're getting those top 10% of the assets to full that's kind of driving the incremental component? Is there something operationally that you're doing where you'd continue to see that flow-through improve as we go forward? Just a little bit of color on that would be helpful.
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
You bet. One of the real positive aspects of the senior housing business model is its operating leverage. What that really refers to is that as occupancies go higher, your expenses become more fixed. The difference between this year and last year is we're running at a higher occupancy. You have more operating leverage you're benefiting from, that's producing the opportunity for the better incremental margin that we're seeing. 55% was good. We would expect really the opportunity, all things considered equal, the opportunity for that to be even better as we move occupancy over time.
David Rodgers — Analyst, Raymond James
Maybe a separate follow-up. With regard to investments, obviously, I'd love your opinion on where we are in the development cycle. You talk about discount to replacement costs. Rents are below where they need to be to develop. I think from a new development standpoint, you haven't been particularly active. Is that something, as you look out over the next couple of years, that you can see that gap closing with 5% RevPAR and 300 basis point pickup in margin where you want to be ahead of that curve? I guess maybe talk to me about where you think we are maybe in the cycle of development for Ventas in particular.
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
If you don't mind, I'll kind of speak to big picture first, then I can talk about us. We're really focused on acquiring in place and growing cash flows. That's our primary focus. Development is going to be needed. Debbie made the point around demand. There's a need for supply over time. The reality is that there's not a lot of projects that would pencil at this current time. We think that current rents need to be up to 40% higher or even more than that in certain cases. Trended rents around 25% higher. We're a ways off from probably any big wave in development. There's also just construction costs and availability of labor as well as debt and equity cost and availability of capital.
One thing on that, though, it's pretty clear that because of those dynamics, the projects that could pencil are those that are so disconnected from the market in terms of rent expectations that they would feel comfortable delivering and really introducing a new higher-end product to a market, which is a luxury product. We see these in our pipeline. Those are the types of projects that developers/operators are trying to bring to market.
It's a luxury product. Our primary focus right now is really to continue this acquisition program we've had. It's delivered over $8 billion, and it's projected to deliver $4.5 billion this year just based on what's been closed or under contract, at really attractive returns and with a really high quality type of community that we've been acquiring. We're going to keep that going.
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
Just to top that off, what we do know is that there were a little over 1,000 starts this quarter, there's 2 million people turning 80 just in 2026, that demographic demand wave continues for a decade. When we look ahead, the near to intermediate term multi-year growth and value creation opportunity is really an exceptional one for us.
David Rodgers — Analyst, Raymond James
Thank you.
Seth Bergey — Analyst, Citi
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I guess just to start off with the kind of increased acquisition guidance and the increased competition in the marketplace, has the number of deals that you guys are looking at that funnel through to something you close on changed? Are there certain parts in terms of more stabilized versus value add deals where you're seeing more competition, and just any color you can give on how pricing has also moved?
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
Sure, yeah. I'm going to kind of start with the end part of your question. Pricing. We've mentioned in previous calls that cap rates have drifted down on a year-over-year basis. We've been really steady in the mid sixes in terms of our year one yield, and then we've consistently been double digits to mid teens on levered IRRs. That continues in this next wave of $1 billion that's under contract.
Two-thirds of that's a value add product with a higher growth profile. We're expecting similar yields and similar IRRs in that group. Also, we have a pipeline that's really active. We have plenty under review and look forward to pressing our advantages moving forward in terms of external growth. I think that might have addressed your whole question. Did I miss anything?
Seth Bergey — Analyst, Citi
Just is kind of less funneling through to close.
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
Yeah.
Seth Bergey — Analyst, Citi
In terms of the numbers of the deals that you're looking at that-
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
Yep. There's a couple factors at work. First of all, the market is bringing a lot more assets so that there's more coming to market and in our relationship-driven pipeline. That's really important because we have these competitive advantages that Justin mentioned, the team experience, the sophistication, the relationships. Most importantly, we are winning more than our fair share and expect to continue to.
Seth Bergey — Analyst, Citi
Maybe just a second one on the guidance. The kind of midpoint implies a second half of kind of $0.98 a quarter, and you just did $0.97 in 2Q. I guess, just is there a level of conservatism in there just given that you closed the deals in the second quarter and key selling season seems to be going on track? Or are there any offsets we should be thinking about?
Robert Probst — EVP and CFO, Ventas
Yeah. It's Bob. The increase to the guide, the bridge is driven, though this is $0.02 net, but driven by investments up $0.04. That's $3.4 billion under our belt and roughly $1 billion to go. We also increased our dispositions and loan repayment guidance at a blended $0.07. If you unpack, I called it $0.03 net.
If you unpack that, it's $0.04 investments less $0.01 for the dispositions, and that's all happening in the back half of the year. That's the biggest piece. The last piece is higher interest rates, stronger dollar, and our stronger share price, net $0.01. You're right to say that nets out to $0.98 on average for the back half of the year relative to our $0.97 in the second at the midpoint.
Seth Bergey — Analyst, Citi
Thanks.
Vikram Malhotra — Analyst, Mizuho
Morning. Thanks for taking the questions and congrats on the strong print overall. I guess just on that strength, I was wondering, I know you're early in the selling season, but what's kind of kept your same store SHOP guide intact? If you just take your assumptions, you're pretty easily hitting 16%. I'm wondering, is it comps like in the back half of last year, you had an acceleration? Is it perhaps Canada Again, facing tough comps with some people with expenses. It seemed like you had a very good print, so I'm wondering why not even modestly increase the SHOP guide.
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
Well, first of all, we just raised it last quarter. We did take that step already based on the performance we saw playing out. We've proven that in the second quarter. Now we're in the key selling season, and we'll see how that continues to play out. We already did raise. Now we have a lot of execution ahead of us and things are going well.
Robert Probst — EVP and CFO, Ventas
Just to underscore, the first half was 16% year-over-year NOI growth. We're holding 16% for the year, it's pretty straightforward that 16% in the back half is our assumption.
Vikram Malhotra — Analyst, Mizuho
Okay. I guess just now I have high expectations. Second question. You've talked a lot about the senior housing opportunity set and the flow-through that's just now beginning on the incremental margin side. I'm wondering if you look at the next two years, similar to a question that was asked, like positioning the overall portfolio to kind of take that 10% NOI growth that you're seeing overall and really translating that into 11%, 12%, 13% FFO and AFFO growth.
I'm just looking for updated thoughts on Canada. You create a lot of value. Can you monetize that medical office? Slow growth, asset pricing is very good in the private market. Can you monetize that? Then maybe just thoughts on life sciences on the university side. Is there an opportunity set in other businesses to help take this FFO growth trajectory higher? Thanks.
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
Hi, Vikram. It's Debbie. Let me take a couple shots at that. First of all, we're in our fifth year of double-digit NOI growth from our SHOP portfolio, kind of the best is yet to come. The last couple of years have really shown really good same property growth. As an enterprise this quarter, it's 10%.
The biggest offsets to that in the past couple of years, including this year, as Bob just described, is the interest rate curve and FX, et cetera, macro factors, let's call it. Our strategy is really to continue driving that same property growth led by SHOP and hopefully get an assist from the macro in terms of the rate environment and so on. The emphasis of our strategy, again, as I said, is to SHOP.
We expect to be already 60% of a $60 billion enterprise by the end of this year. Our strategy of focusing on aggressively growing that internally and externally continues. That's how I would answer your question. In terms of Canada, just to touch on that for a minute, I would tell you that our dispositions are really focused on non-SHOP assets. We are doing more, as you saw in the guide. Canada remains a significant contributor to our enterprise growth.
James Kammert — Analyst, Evercore ISI
Thank you. Good morning. I hope I'm not drilling on.
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
Hi, Jim.
James Kammert — Analyst, Evercore ISI
Hey, Debbie. I hope I'm not drilling too much on a dead horse. Justin, you mentioned again the cohort of the same store pool is 90%+ occupied. You said certain of them are driving 25% NOI growth, which is pretty impressive. I think you also said it was 6% RevPOR growth for that pool. I'm just trying to understand how much of this is really pricing versus occupancy. I'm just trying to see when we get to a steady state, let's say you have mid-90s across a lot of your portfolio, what do you think pricing can look like on an annual basis as you run out of occupancy opportunity?
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
Well, that's going to be the question that we look forward to answering over time. I can tell you what we're seeing so far. That the 90%+ group is half the U.S. same store portfolio. Huge sample, 6% RevPOR. The occupancy was even better than the average occupancy reported across the portfolio. It's benefiting from occupancy and rate growth working together to drive the NOI growth and margin expansion.
We know that when we get even higher occupied, you get up into that group that's like 99%+ occupied that I mentioned, 7% RevPOR growth. More pricing power. The scarcity value's playing out. It's important to note that this is all in an environment that's not as attractive as what's coming.
That's one of the reasons, one of the many, we keep saying the best is yet to come because we haven't even experienced the best demographic cycle yet. That's just starting now. With the baby boomers turning 80, with deliveries down and starts way down, we have this window of opportunity we've been looking forward to. The value proposition in senior housing is pretty amazing. It's utilized regularly by our 90,000+ residents, 100,000 across our whole portfolio. We look forward to serving more seniors, we look forward to demonstrating the value proposition, with that does come a price opportunity, we think.
James Kammert — Analyst, Evercore ISI
All right. Thank you, Justin. One small question or detail. On the acquisitions year to date, it looks like on average, about a 9% retained interest on the seller or sellers. Is that any part of some sort of financial alignment you're trying to create with those sellers, or just really idiosyncratic that they had tax or other motivations to retain a piece of what they were owning? Thank you.
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
I want to make sure I'm understanding the question.
James Kammert — Analyst, Evercore ISI
I'm sorry.
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
You're talking about sellers retaining ownership?
James Kammert — Analyst, Evercore ISI
Yeah. It looked like you own on your pro rata basis about 91% of the investment-
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
Oh, yeah. Okay. Yeah. What you're looking at is actually, remember we have our fund that's focused on core plus investments across the various asset classes. We invest in 20% of what the fund invests in, you're seeing our share reflected in the sub. We did do one joint venture that we talked about last quarter with Revel. We will likely do more in the future, but mostly what you're seeing is the share between us and the fund.
James Kammert — Analyst, Evercore ISI
Got it. Did appreciate it. Thank you.
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
Good.
Juan Sanabria — Analyst, BMO Capital Markets
Good morning. Just hoping, Justin, maybe you could talk a little bit about Canada and the RevPOR there, if that should kind of educate us or be a lead for how the U.S. RevPOR could trend or if there's considerations, rent restrictions, whatever in Quebec that may be holding that back. I know you talked about like the 99% occupancy communities in the U.S. and the RevPOR they've had there, but just how Canada could be a lead or not relative to how the U.S. could perform.
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
Canada has some structural differences. First of all, it's 97% occupied. We have a really high-quality portfolio there amongst a few different operators. Le Groupe Maurice is consistently the standout. They're Quebec-based, and there are rent restrictions in place in Quebec. There's kind of social barriers around rent as well in Ontario. We do experience pretty good RevPOR growth there.
One of the reasons it stands out is because we have an independent living product. You don't really have that releasing spread drag that you can experience with assisted living when the higher acuity residents move out and lower acuity residents move in. That the independent living RevPOR is really more stable and rent driven. Pretty good print there, but we don't view it as the indicator for the future in the U.S.
What we're looking at for the future opportunity in the U.S. are the examples I gave around the 90%+ and the 100% occupied communities, where we're already demonstrating across a huge sample size, higher RevPOR growth.
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
In the U.S., we're looking at maximizing NOI growth through the calibration of rate and occupancy that Ventas OI is expert at, while at the same time making sure, as Justin said, we're offering that value proposition to seniors. That's really how we've been growing the portfolio, and we see that continuing as scarcity potentially develops within the U.S. market.
Juan Sanabria — Analyst, BMO Capital Markets
Thanks. Just as a follow-up, you mentioned kind of focusing on some non-core dispositions. Hoping you could talk a little bit about what's in that bucket, why now, and maybe as part of that, I think there was a transaction with Scion and kind of the Kindred entity and how that may have fit into that bucket, if at all.
Robert Probst — EVP and CFO, Ventas
Yeah. Well, I'll start with the dispo assumption. Again, we increased that to $700 million. It's really outside of SHOP, so think the rest of the asset classes, and I would call it sort of the non-strategic type assets in those asset classes, including loan repayments at quite a high yield. About $100 million or so at 11% in terms of getting a loan repaid, a really strong loan. That's the net $700 million and really focused outside of SHOP.
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
Yeah, substantially all of the $8-plus billion of investments that we've completed since beginning of 2024 have been in SHOP, consistent with the strategy. We had a small opportunity to make a well-structured investment in terms of a recycled loan capital because of our position in the capital structure and contractual rights, we took it.
Juan Sanabria — Analyst, BMO Capital Markets
Thank you.
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
Thanks, Juan.
Michael Goldsmith — Analyst, UBS
Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Can you provide some color on the subsequent investment activity in the course of the third quarter? It looks like the yields are relatively healthy at 6.2%, but the price per unit is quite high at $554,000 per unit. Is that still a discount to replacement? What are the occupancy at these facilities? What's the profile of these assets? Thanks.
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
Really good question. There's three communities included in that. By the way, one of those was purchased by our core plus fund. In fact, the community that had the lowest going-in cap rate was there. So our share of that's reflected. That was a class A asset in Colorado. We have two other really core-like assets, one in California, one in Arizona.
They are really high quality, strong performers in markets with really strong net demand. Good occupancy, but also high RevPAR and high price growth opportunity moving forward. So there's a portion of, if you step back and just look at the way we've been allocating capital in senior housing, most of it's been going into either high-performing with upside communities or value add.
There's a portion, though, that we'll put into certain markets where we have these really high quality communities that we think will be market leaders for years to come. These just happen to fall in that category. I wouldn't read the end of the six too. We're expecting the $1 billion under contract to deliver around a 6.5, consistent with what we've been delivering so far and what we've closed this year.
Michael Goldsmith — Analyst, UBS
Got it. Thanks for that. Just as a follow-up, I think there was a $300 million healthcare loan mentioned in the press release. I don't know if we've touched on it on the call. Could you provide a little bit more details around that?
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
Yes. I just touched on it with Juan. It's just a recycling of, we expect some loan repayments, as Bob talked about. We've recycled the capital into a well-structured loan investment based on our position in capital structure and contractual rights that we have.
Michael Goldsmith — Analyst, UBS
Got it. Thank you very much. Good luck in the back half.
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
Thank you very much.
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
Thanks much.
Michael Carroll — Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Yeah, thanks. Justin, I'm going to turn back to the key selling season, as you kind of highlighted that the occupancy gains really depends on the timing and the slope of that. When did the occupancy slope start to inflect this year? How does that compare versus your expectation in prior years? I mean, did the key selling season start when you expected it to start?
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
Yeah. It's a good question. The key selling season time period is always May through September. Every year is a little different in terms of when you have your bigger months. We happen to have a really strong start to the year ahead of the key selling season. That was what helped us to have the confidence to raise from 270 to 300. In the second quarter, we saw evidence that really supported the 300 basis points guide that we gave. What we're seeing so far in the third quarter is good occupancy growth, good sales activity on the ground. So far so good in terms of meeting our expectations so far, with a lot to play out still.
Michael Carroll — Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Okay. Should we expect, going forward, that the occupancy trend will start to track more in line with these typical seasonal trends? I mean, albeit probably still well above what it was pre-COVID. I mean, I know the second quarter sequentially is usually up less than it is in the third quarter, just given how that key selling season slope starts. Should we expect that to happen? It just seems in the prior few years, we just kind of powered right through it. Are we kind of back to that typical seasonal trend of occupancy gains?
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
You make a really good point. Recent seasonality has been a little different. The seasonality certainly still exists. It's just been more muted in the periods outside of the key selling season. A reason for that, quite simply, could be the higher demand that we're facing. Perhaps we're in a new paradigm. I would expect seasonality to continue. Hopefully, we can continue to see the muted seasons outside the key selling season. We hope to see rip-roaring key selling seasons moving forward, too. We'll see. We certainly like our opportunity given the demand characteristics and the strengths of our platform.
Michael Carroll — Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Okay, great. Thanks. Appreciate it.
Richard Anderson — Analyst, Cantor Fitzgerald
Hey, thanks. Good morning. Obviously the bar is high, the market is speaking whether you agree with it or not. I'm sure you don't agree with it. It's a little exaggerated. Justin, you described the selling season so far as being on track. Perhaps the market was hoping for a better description. Is there anything underneath that comment that is sort of not particularly exciting to you? Is there anything that you're sort of monitoring? I don't know really how to ask the question more directly than that. When you say it's on track, is there some hiccups going on behind the scenes that you can talk about?
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
I'm excited about 16% growth in SHOP.
Richard Anderson — Analyst, Cantor Fitzgerald
Yeah.
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
Yeah, 300 basis points of occupancy growth. I understand what you're asking. What I would say is we're seeing broad-based contributions across the portfolio. Our same-store SHOP is same-store for a reason. For example, our non-same store is usually in a period of some kind of transition or redevs or they're newer acquisitions. The same store, that's the portfolio that's been with us for a period of time, in a form that is really when it should be most competitive. We're experiencing that across the portfolio. We're seeing good occupancy growth and independent living, assisted living, across our markets, across our operators. No, there's nothing within the portfolio that is of concern. We're really encouraged by the broad-based contributions.
Richard Anderson — Analyst, Cantor Fitzgerald
Fair enough. You're right about the pace of growth. I just wanted to ask the question. The second, the 25% NOI growth for the 90-plus occupancies, that was a U.S. portfolio observation, I assume?
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
That's right.
Richard Anderson — Analyst, Cantor Fitzgerald
Okay. You said 10% of the portfolio is 100% occupied, and that's a 20% NOI growth story. Again, I assume the U.S.
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
Yeah
Richard Anderson — Analyst, Cantor Fitzgerald
Is this informing you about the efficient frontier around occupancy? Because I know you have talked about a strategy of pursuing 100% occupied campuses, but maybe this is telling you that the efficient frontier is not 100%, and you shouldn't be really shooting for that, but something in the low to mid 90s. Is that a reasonable mathematical observation, or is this just a point in time and shouldn't be overly emphasizing it? Thanks.
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
When I talked about, in my prepared remarks, this cultural commitment to zero loss revenue days. In order to get the performance we are talking about in this 90-plus group, you really have to be stretching to go full. We need as many communities that we can go to 100% occupancy.
You have the best opportunity for margin expansion in that group because of the operating leverage in the business. It's not easy to do, but we have 10% of our portfolio that's achieving it. We have half our portfolio that's in the U.S., in the same store that's in that 90-plus group, and they are contributing a lot of growth. They are contributing growth because they are reaching for that ultimate goal of being 100% occupied.
There's an opportunity in this asset class, given the lack of frictional vacancy, to achieve that result, and we are proving it, the goal would be to get as many communities full as possible.
Richard Anderson — Analyst, Cantor Fitzgerald
Okay. Thank you.
Jesus Garcia — Analyst, Wells Fargo
Good morning. This is Jesus on for John. Thanks for taking the question. With leverage now down to 4.7 times and the balance sheet continuing to improve, as you look beyond this year's investment plan, should we assume acquisitions are still primarily equity funded, or will the funding mix likely become more tilted, more balanced, I guess, going forward?
Robert Probst — EVP and CFO, Ventas
Thanks for the question. I'm very proud and pleased that 4.7, which is our leverage as of the second quarter, and when you look at unsettled equity, which will be used to fund investments, we're in the mid fours. That's well over a turn from where we were last year. The playbook of the strategy has been equitizing investments in senior housing, and that is both accretive and delevering. That has been a powerful combination. Given the market backdrop and the situation we have both in terms of investment opportunities and our cost to capital, I would expect that to continue. Without putting a number on it, we're going to keep running that playbook.
Jesus Garcia — Analyst, Wells Fargo
Excellent. Just a separate follow-up here. With the Brookdale transitions largely complete at this point, what are you seeing so far this selling season in terms of leads, move-ins, and pricing? Does what you're seeing today still support the opportunity to roughly double NOI over time for that portfolio?
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
I'll start with the end. We absolutely believe in the opportunity to double the NOI in that portfolio. I want to put it in context for those that might not remember what this is. We have a non-same store portfolio, it's 25% of the NOI in SHOP. That includes acquisitions, transitions, redevs, primarily.
The former Brookdale communities are large-scale communities that we thought would benefit from an operator change and investment in the asset to better position it, and then executing off of what was a low occupancy in markets that have strong net demand. All of those actions are underway this year, and we'll expect in the future the opportunity to go after that, doubling the NOI. We also have opportunities like that across the rest of the non-same store portfolio as well that we're working on.
Those actions are underway. That will really fuel our future growth.
Jesus Garcia — Analyst, Wells Fargo
Appreciate the color. Thanks, guys.
Mike Mueller — Analyst, J.P. Morgan
Guy, I guess in the research portfolio, there was some chunky occupancy loss in the quarter. Can you give a little bit of color on what's happening there and what to expect going forward?
Robert Probst — EVP and CFO, Ventas
Sure. This was as expected. There were a few tenants that didn't renew in the portfolio. It is net, net a $900,000 impact year-over-year, very much in line with our expectation. I would emphasize that the second quarter in research is likely to reflect the balance of the year given those move-outs. That's it in short.
Mike Mueller — Analyst, J.P. Morgan
Got it. Okay. I guess looking at the U.S. SHOP portfolio, you had the biggest year-over-year occupancy gains and rent growth in the markets that you classified as other markets. Can you give a little color in terms of what falls into those buckets and what's happening on the ground there that makes them relatively stronger?
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
Yeah. We've got the primary, secondary, and other markets, obviously.
Last year, secondary was outperforming. This year, we have really strong growth across primary and other. Other does have a lot of our independent living products, that's either Holiday or a Holiday-like community, and they're delivering really strong growth for us this year, in terms of occupancy and NOI growth. That's been a really big contributor for us.
Mike Mueller — Analyst, J.P. Morgan
Got it. Okay. Appreciate it. Thank you.
Michael Stroyeck — Analyst, Green Street
Thanks, good morning. Maybe going back to the development topic, I appreciate the comments on where you think rents need to go. Where do you think development yields are actually at today, and where do they need to be, in your opinion, for development to make a bit more sense?
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
Yeah. The standard underwriting and a development yield spread is around 150 to 200 basis points. Call it 8% yield or so. That's usually what we use in our assumptions. We'll run sensitivities down to seven and just to use the judgment in terms of what could happen in terms of a development actually penciling. That's the standard that we're using, if you're wondering.
Michael Stroyeck — Analyst, Green Street
I guess where do you think yields are at today? How far away are we from that 8%?
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
We're investing across the $4.5 billion, we're investing at 6.5%.
Michael Stroyeck — Analyst, Green Street
Sorry.
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
If you put the 150-200 on top of that, so now you're at 8%-8.5%. That's just the standard underwriting you'd see. You'd expect the development yield spread of 150-200 basis points over in the expected year one yields and investments.
Michael Stroyeck — Analyst, Green Street
Sorry, I guess I meant more based on where rents are today, where do you think a development yield would be, and how far away is it from that 8% development yield that would need to be required to pencil?
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
Justin. Go ahead, Justin.
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
Yeah. The way we would look at it is what would a developer expect in terms of return? We think that's around 8%, give or take. Someone might reach for a lower yield. Some might be more comfortable higher than that, but let's just call it eight. Then it's what do the trended rents need to be in order to achieve that? We think that's at least 25% higher, which means it's largely not achievable.
The projects don't pencil to what developers would seek in terms of their typically underwritten yields. The exception I mentioned earlier could be a luxury product, where they're introducing a much higher price point and entering a market as a bona fide leader. Certain developers have land banks out there that could help that, even though they're higher barrier markets.
That's maybe the exception we'll see first, but we're not expecting any big waves of new development announcements. However, we are really low in terms of starts right now. It's hard to imagine it getting much lower. We'll see what happens.
Michael Stroyeck — Analyst, Green Street
Okay. Understood. Maybe just one on dispositions. How long should we expect elevated levels of dispositions? Is this just a second half of 2026 story, or could we see multiple years of pruning the portfolio?
Robert Probst — EVP and CFO, Ventas
Yeah, it's Bob. If you go back and look in time, $500 million is a normal kind of average. We're slightly above that. I would say it's in the neighborhood of what we would do just in terms of upgrading the portfolio and improving the overall growth rate. Good hygiene is the way I describe it. This is of that ilk.
Michael Stroyeck — Analyst, Green Street
Got it. Thanks for the time.
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
Thank you.
Ronald Kamdem — Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Great. I'll be quick. I know we're running long here. I just wanted to talk a little bit more about expenses. I think that obviously the guidance is unchanged. Just a little color, whether it's some of the labor costs. Just what do you think is the opportunity you're sort of breaking that expense curve, both the total same store number as well as sort of expense to operating room? Thanks.
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
Ron, one thing just to note is that the portfolio's delivering about 9% revenue growth, so I do want to start there.
Justin Hutchens — EVP, Senior Housing and Chief Investment Officer, Ventas
Yeah. Really good revenue growth. The expense growth that you see at 5% is really volume driven. Our OPEX for is around 1.5%, and that's because of the operating leverage that kicks in this business model. The guide we have is 5.5%. We had a first quarter that was impacted by weather, so it elevated expenses in the first quarter at 5A. We're back in line with moderate expense growth around five. We left room in our guide for some expense growth in the second half of the year, which will be volume driven, but also very efficient, to my point, because there's margin expansion that would come with that.
Ronald Kamdem — Analyst, Morgan Stanley
My second one is just to circle back to sort of the ScionHealth conversation. I think the presentation said the financial impact was already contemplated in guidance. Can you just provide any color of what that financial impact is? Because it seems like a good outcome that should've been beneficial. Thanks.
Robert Probst — EVP and CFO, Ventas
It is a good outcome, and the principal driver is the loan. We show the rate, the $300 million at call it 10.5 effective rate. That's the key driver, and that was contemplated in previous guidance, as you say.
Ronald Kamdem — Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Thank you.
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
Thanks.
Omotayo Okusanya — Analyst, Deutsche Bank
Good morning. I just wanted to go back to Rick Anderson's question, this kind of idea of kind of lofty expectations. Again, some of your peers have done some large transformative transactions to have more SHOP exposure to ultimately accelerate their earnings growth profile. How do you guys kind of think about that? Again, things are going great. Earnings are clearly accelerating. It does feel like the market is rewarding the names who are getting bigger faster in SHOP, if I may use those words. I'm just kind of curious how you're thinking about that strategically.
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
Omotayo, it's Debbie. Thanks for the question. Billie Jean King said pressure is a privilege, I believe that. We have high expectations of ourselves. We're delivering really great results, we have this multi-year NOI growth and value creation opportunity ahead, we've organized the company to really capitalize on that.
We're all excited about what the future holds. We're building SHOP to be 60% of our portfolio by the end of this year on a $60 billion enterprise. The investment engine is firing on all cylinders, SHOPs delivering 16% NOI growth. We feel very optimistic about our prospects in the future and value creation for all of our stakeholders, we're very focused on outperformance at scale. We will keep focused on executing the strategy with excellence and delivering outsized returns over a multi-year time horizon.
Omotayo Okusanya — Analyst, Deutsche Bank
Thank you, Debbie.
Debra A. Cafaro — Chairman and CEO, Ventas
Thanks so much. I want to thank all of our participants for joining us this morning. We really appreciate your interest in and support of the company. Hope you have a great rest of the summer, and we look forward to seeing you soon.