Free cash flow is defined as cash from operations plus capital expenditures. Adjusted earnings per share excludes the impact of restructuring and impairment expenses. Our EPS was $0.85, a decrease of 11% due to lower volumes and transaction-related expenses recognized in the quarter for the Leonard Valve acquisition. Despite these headwinds, diligent working capital management helped to drive strong free cash flow performance in the quarter.

Production and shipping constraints caused by adverse weather, most notably at our Ashland City, Tennessee facility, combined with softer than anticipated residential industry demand early in the year, negatively impacted the quarter. As we discussed on our January earnings call, the wholesale residential channel continues to face challenges, including a soft market in new construction and continued initiatives by retailers to expand into serving the professional. Our North America boiler sales grew 2% compared to 2025 as residential boiler volume growth and carryover pricing benefits more than offset lower commercial volumes. 10% growth in our priority dealer channel was largely offset by softness in the specialty plumbing wholesale channel.

A cautious consumer environment led to flat growth in our more consumer-facing channels, with a general trend towards a trade-down to lower-priced products. We expanded operating margin by almost 100 basis points despite the slower start to the year as we continue to work on improving the profitability of this platform. We exited the quarter with a strong backlog, and Leonard remains on track to achieve another year of double-digit growth. Because of our team's swift response and our insurance coverage, we project minimal impact to our full-year performance.

What went well
  • North America segment sales rose 1% to $753 million as carryover pricing benefits and the Leonard Valve contribution largely offset lower residential water heater volumes.
  • Leonard Valve, acquired January 6th, contributed $16 million to first-quarter sales led by strong performance in the valve business, exited the quarter with a strong backlog, and remains on track for another year of double-digit growth.
  • Free cash flow was strong at $119 million, a significant increase over 2025, driven by diligent working capital management and the timing of customer payments that more than offset lower earnings.
  • North America water treatment sales rose 1% and the company expanded operating margin by almost 100 basis points despite the slower start, helped by 10% growth in the priority dealer channel.
  • North America boiler sales grew 2% versus 2025 as residential boiler volume growth and carryover pricing benefits more than offset lower commercial volumes.
  • Management pointed to stabilization of water heater market share in the wholesale channel and strong share and partnerships in the retail channel, giving clear visibility into market trends.
  • The company repurchased approximately 700,000 shares for $51 million in the quarter, the board approved a $0.36 per share quarterly dividend, and management said it retains significant capacity for future acquisitions.
What went wrong
  • Total company first quarter sales decreased 2% to $946 million and adjusted EPS declined 11% to $0.85, hurt by lower volumes and Leonard Valve transaction-related expenses.
  • Rest of World segment sales fell 11% to $201 million, with segment earnings down $8 million to $12 million and margin down 250 basis points to 6.2%, driven by weak China consumer demand.
  • China sales decreased 17% in local currency as most government stimulus programs were discontinued and consumer confidence stayed low, hitting the premium market where A. O. Smith competes.
  • North America water heater sales fell 2% year-over-year on weather-related production and shipping constraints, most notably at the Ashland City facility, plus softer residential demand; the weather cut approximately $0.04 per share.
  • North America segment earnings decreased $10 million to $175 million and segment margin declined 140 basis points to 23.3%, primarily due to lower residential water heater volumes.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodCurrent guidance
Adjusted EPSFY2026$3.70-$4.00, excluding a ~$20 million North America water treatment restructuring/impairment charge
Total company top-line growthFY2026approximately 2%-4%
China sales (local currency)FY2026down low double digits, with Q2 down approximately 15% vs Q1
U.S. commercial water heater industry volumesFY2026similar to last year (flat) after DOE one-year enforcement delay
North America boiler sales growthFY20266%-8% (unchanged)
North America water treatment sales growthFY20265%-6%
Leonard Valve salesFY2026double-digit growth, ~$70 million (unchanged)
India (incl. Pureit) top-line growthFY2026~10% (unchanged)
North America segment marginFY2026approximately 24%
Rest of World segment marginFY20266%-7%
Steel cost assumption (YoY)FY2026increase of approximately 15% vs 2025
Freight, non-steel material and tariff cost impact on total company COGSFY2026increase of approximately 3%
Capital expendituresFY2026$70-$80 million (maintained)
Free cash flowFY2026$525-$575 million
Interest expenseFY2026$30-$40 million (higher due to $470 million debt for Leonard Valve)
Corporate and other expensesFY2026$80-$85 million (incl. $6 million Leonard Valve transaction expenses)
Effective tax rateFY202624%-24.5%
Diluted shares outstandingend of 2026138 million
Share repurchasesFY2026$200 million
North America water treatment restructuring chargeQ2 2026approximately $20 million, with projected annual savings of $6-$8 million beginning in 2027
North America water treatment operating margin2026 / 2027expand ~200 bps to ~15% in 2026, with an incremental ~200 bps in 2027

Performance Breakdown

MetricYoYNote
Total company sales -2% to $946 million Lower Rest of World/China volumes, partly offset by a 1% increase in North America
Adjusted EPS -11% to $0.85 Lower volumes and Leonard Valve transaction-related expenses recognized in the quarter
North America segment sales +1% to $753 million Carryover pricing and Leonard Valve contributions largely offset by lower residential water heater volumes and weather-related constraints
North America segment earnings / margin earnings -$10M to $175M; margin -140 bps to 23.3% Lower residential water heater volumes more than offset Leonard Valve's earnings contribution; prior year benefited from pull-forward demand and richer mix
Rest of World segment sales -11% to $201 million Continued weak consumer demand in China, partially offset by favorable foreign currency
Rest of World segment earnings / margin earnings -$8M to $12M; margin -250 bps to 6.2% Lower sales volumes, partially offset by continued cost management in China
China sales (local currency) -17% Discontinuation of most government stimulus and continued low consumer confidence, especially in the premium market
North America water heater sales -2% Weather-related production/shipping constraints at Ashland City and softer-than-anticipated early residential demand
North America boiler sales +2% Residential boiler volume growth and carryover pricing more than offset lower commercial volumes
North America water treatment sales +1% 10% priority dealer channel growth largely offset by softness in specialty plumbing wholesale and a trade-down to lower-priced products
Leonard Valve sales contribution +$16 million (new) Strong performance in the valve business following the January 6th acquisition
Free cash flow $119 million, significant increase over 2025 Diligent working capital management and timing of customer payments

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious mentionCurrent periodTrend
China strategic assessmentOngoing evaluation of strategic alternativesAssessment maturing but taking longer amid a very challenging market; many performance-improvement actions pending its conclusion, with clarity targeted within the next few months
North America water treatment resetExiting on-the-shelf retail as the first step of the resetNext step: brand rationalization (favoring the A. O. Smith brand) and footprint optimization, with a ~$20M Q2 restructuring charge and margin expansion goals
Operational excellence and AIAOS Operating System driving continuous improvementAdding process intelligence and AI agents (order management, warranty claims, technical service) to lift productivity and margins
Water management M&A platformWater treatment scale-up focus over the last seven-eight yearsLeonard Valve as the foundation of the water management strategy, viewed as the richest area for future M&A
Pricing versus cost inflationCarryover pricing offsetting cost inflationNew 4%-7% price increases on most water heater and boiler products announced, with benefit expected from Q3 against rising steel, freight and oil-linked costs
DOE commercial water heater regulationOctober 6 commercial regulatory change expected to drive pre-buy activityDOE issued a one-year enforcement delay to October 2027, so less pre-buy is now assumed and commercial industry volumes projected similar to last year

Q&A Summary

Goldman Sachs (Maklari): How much pull-forward around the announced pricing are you seeing in residential channel inventories, and how should we think about channel flow-through into Q2?
The pull-forward reference was to last year; there has been no meaningful pull-forward in Q1 2026 and the announced increase is effective roughly mid-May, so it is early days. Channel inventories are in line with expectations coming out of Q1.
Goldman Sachs (Maklari): What drove the commercial regulatory change being pushed out a year and how does it affect demand this year and next?
The DOE October 2025 commercial rule has been held up in the courts and awaits possible Supreme Court review; given that uncertainty and the approaching October 6 date, DOE said it would not enforce the rule until October 2027. That could still change, but it made management more prudent in assuming the industry does less buy-ahead.
D.A. Davidson (Summerville): Getting out of big-box retail was supposed to be the water treatment reset, yet you're initiating another reset. How big is the business and how should we think about it going forward?
Water treatment is just over $250 million. Exiting on-the-shelf retail was step one; this next step focuses on leveraging the A. O. Smith brand over acquired brands and rationalizing manufacturing footprint. In 2026 they aim to expand ~200 bps to about 15% North America water treatment operating margin, with an incremental ~200 bps in 2027.
D.A. Davidson (Summerville): With China now expected down low double digits, are you losing share, and how do you justify the length of the review while potentially bleeding share?
It was a challenging down market across the categories they serve, but third-party data shows they did not lose much share and roughly maintained it in Q1. The tough market is the biggest reason the assessment is taking longer; the brand and pricing power remain strong with strong partner interest, and they hope for clarity in the coming months.
JPMorgan (Sano): Have you observed any market share changes across key regions in this challenging environment?
In China there was some share loss in prior years but no meaningful loss in Q1 2026. In the U.S., wholesale water heater share has stabilized (a big focus, more work to do) and retail share and partnerships are strong; nothing meaningful lost and maintaining share remains a focus.
JPMorgan (Sano): How is the Leonard Valve integration progressing and are you on track for the expected synergies?
Very pleased with the first quarter; it is a great portfolio fit and the foundation of the water management strategy. Integration is on track, and the biggest opportunity is going to market together, which has been very well received by customers.
Longbow (Nolan): Walk through the margin cadence given higher steel/freight costs in Q2 but price benefit not until Q3.
Q1 price-cost was favorable with pricing overcoming costs plus a little margin. Q2 will see incremental costs (transportation, diesel, steel) ahead of the price increase that takes effect in Q3, so a little pressure in Q2 that is overcome in Q3 and Q4 by pricing. Management feels comfortable but is watching persistent oil-related costs closely.
Longbow (Nolan): Is the commercial water heater industry outlook coming down to flat purely the regulatory change or other pieces?
The regulatory change is the biggest driver of the change in outlook.
Baird (Halloran): How does earnings cadence through the year, given Leonard's ~$0.02 rolling off, Q2 price-cost, weather catch-up and other headwinds?
China is expected down ~15% in Q2 vs Q1 with 35%-40% decremental margins as they lean out channel inventories. North America has costs ahead of Q3 pricing, a Q2 headwind. Softer DOE pull-forward is assumed. Q2 EPS is expected to be roughly 25% of full-year midpoint, helped by some price pull-forward; back half is stronger on boilers, with China following normal seasonality (strongest Q4).
Baird (Halloran): Do you expect demand pull-forward ahead of the 4%-7% price increases, and how will the channel accept them?
There is always a little pull-ahead; they work closely with customers through transitions and operate smartly. They remain committed to keeping customers competitive amid an uncertain, cost-pressured environment.
KeyBanc (Hammond): The EPS cut is only ~$0.15 while macro assumptions moved the wrong way; what are the offsets?
There is a little Q2 catch-up from the plant issue. The big changes from last guidance were China and the DOE policy statement; teams continue cost management in China and North America. Cost is volatile with oil and transportation up, so watching costs is the biggest lever near-term; operational excellence is the longer-term productivity lever.
KeyBanc (Hammond): Have competitors announced similar pricing, and what changes are you seeing in the competitive wholesale channel?
They will not comment on competitor pricing but point to a strong history of offsetting costs over time and feel good about positioning. It remains competitive and the whole industry likely faces similar cost inputs; their commitment is to keep customers competitive.
Stifel (Farley): Does the commercial regulatory delay change how you ramp capacity for the commercial change, and what are broader capacity plans?
They were prepared for the transition and made some investments; if demand is pushed out they will be ready with those made investments, while delaying remaining investments until there is certainty of demand.
Stifel (Farley): Was there any incremental change to the gross tariff impact, and what is contemplated in the guide?
They saw relief on IEEPA tariffs while others came in, leaving the tariff outlook roughly net neutral to slightly favorable, but overshadowed by oil-related costs (diesel, transportation) and resilient steel; net a bit of a cost headwind, which is why pricing is out there.
Citi (Bak): You held the boiler outlook while lowering others; how much is volume versus pricing?
The 6%-8% boiler growth has a big carryover pricing component from last year. Q1 commercial was softer but orders are catching up in typical seasonality, and they remain confident in the 6%-8% guide, with price still a big component.
Citi (Bak): How do you view the current M&A pipeline in core and adjacent areas?
There are a few opportunities to strengthen the core alongside organic investment; water treatment scale/profitability has been a focus for seven-eight years with a few more opportunities. The richest area is the water management platform, where Leonard Valve (closed in January) sits, and building out that category is a big focus.

More on Smith A O Corp

Reported 2026-04-30 · figures from the Smith A O Corp Q1 2026 earnings call.

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