Jon Chappell (Evercore ISI) asked whether inland margins can still exceed the last peak and over what timing, and about any Jones Act waiver impact.
David Grzebinski said it will be a slow, steady multi-year (roughly five-year) march back toward the ~28% peak given balanced/tight supply with no new builds and a strong Q4 renewal setup; on the waiver, he and Christian O'Neil said impact on Kirby has been negligible (fully termed up), most of the ~150 non-Jones-Act moves are trader-driven, and they favor a specific rather than blanket waiver.
Ben Mohr (Citi) asked which factors drove the raise toward the upper end (Venezuela crude, Calcasieu Lock, crack spreads, petrochem exports, trucking) and the buyback/other-income assumptions.
Grzebinski cited Venezuelan crude up over 600,000 b/d, near-record crack spreads, improving petrochemical demand, tight capacity, and steady low-to-mid single-digit rate increases, plus healthy behind-the-meter power demand and a bottoming trucking sector; on buybacks, guidance excludes their benefit, and lower Q2 free cash flow (working-capital build) should normalize in the second half.
Ben Mohr (Citi) also asked about fleet age and retirement given a potential multi-year up-cycle.
Grzebinski said average inland barge age is ~17-18 years (usable to ~30-35) and the towboat fleet has gotten younger from recent purchases; O'Neil estimated only ~60 barges being built industry-wide (essentially replacement) since new-build economics are ~40% below the level needed, with elevated steel and labor costs.
Bascome Majors (Stephens) asked about long-term value creation from D&S / power generation and the aftermarket earnings potential.
Grzebinski said the board is driven by shareholder value and is happy with the portfolio, with power gen surprising to the upside and a massive service annuity emerging as the installed base doubles; O'Neil announced Kirby Integrated Power Systems to pursue turnkey data-center uptime service, expecting aftermarket value to exceed the original product value over time.
Scott Group (Wolfe Research) asked where spot sits versus contract in inland, when contract growth can accelerate, and whether coastal pricing softness is Jones-Act-related or a peak.
O'Neil said coastal softness was normal ebb-and-flow on a couple of 80-100k units off all-time highs, not Jones-Act-related, with the fleet fully utilized; Grzebinski said inland spot is 10%-15% above contract, favors slow-and-steady increases with sophisticated customers, and does not believe coastal has peaked.
Scott Group (Wolfe) also asked Raj about the back-half quarterly cadence.
Raj Kumar declined to give quarterly detail but said the second half looks strong with favorable supply dynamics and continued pricing gains, offering that Q3 is probably better than Q4.
Gregory Lewis (BTIG) asked how to think about higher diesel prices, fuel pass-through lags, and the Q2 fuel headwind magnitude.
Grzebinski quantified the Q2 headwind at the higher end of a 5-10 cent range, to be recovered mostly in Q3 via escalation clauses with 30/60/90-day (occasionally longer) lags; he said Kirby works to be neutral on fuel and to use Gulf Coast (not New York) prices as the reference.
Ken Hoexter (Bank of America) questioned the changed tone (top-end outlook yet a longer ~five-year path to peak inland margins) and sources of upside confidence given coastal/inland/fuel/power-gen dynamics.
Grzebinski attributed the more conservative peak-timing to last year's crude-driven pricing surprise, but insisted coastal is not peaked (expecting 20%+ margins in a couple of years), inland is improving on supply/demand, and power gen's growing behind-the-meter backlog and service tail underpin confidence in the upper end of guidance.
Greg Wasikowski (Webber Research) asked about efficiency/AI gains affecting net barge demand and about the upcoming redelivery/maintenance schedule.
O'Neil said Kirby already delivers efficiency at scale (diverse barges, line-haul network, lower horsepower) and sees no major reduction in barge need, with Tier 4 engines and better electronics adding some efficiency; the 2027-2028 maintenance cycle will involve older barges needing more steel/paint and longer shipyard stays, consuming more available days.