In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), Kennametal capped a fourth consecutive quarter of organic growth with a 42% organic sales increase and record profitability, as adjusted EBITDA and operating margins reached 46.8% and 41.5% and adjusted EPS hit a record $2.96 versus $0.34 a year earlier. The quarter and full year were dominated by a massive $252 million favorable price-versus-raw-material timing benefit from the unprecedented rise in tungsten prices, concentrated in Infrastructure; for full-year fiscal 2026, organic sales rose 19%, adjusted EPS jumped to $4.57 from $1.34, and all end markets grew. Management strengthened the balance sheet by extending debt maturities and adding a $500 million term loan, but free operating cash flow was negative $79 million for the year as tungsten-driven working capital consumed cash. The initial fiscal 2027 outlook (sales of $3.33-$3.45 billion and adjusted EPS of $4.15-$5.15, midpoint $4.65) is roughly flat at the headline as the price-raw timing tailwind fades and interest and Bolivia FX headwinds build, even as the underlying earnings engine strengthens.

What went well
  • Fourth-quarter organic sales grew 42% with record adjusted EBITDA and operating margins of 46.8% and 41.5% and a record adjusted EPS of $2.96 versus $0.34
  • Full-year fiscal 2026 organic sales rose 19% and adjusted EPS increased to $4.57 from $1.34, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.9% versus 15.2%
  • A $252 million favorable price-versus-raw-material timing benefit and strong volume drove the quarter, with all end markets growing and energy up 101% and earthworks up 76% in Q4
  • Metal cutting outperformed its public peers for a fourth consecutive quarter, extending a four-year favorable trend
  • Extended the debt maturity profile (nearest maturity July 2029; notes now to 2031 and 2036) and added a $500 million term loan, lifting liquidity to about $926 million
  • Highlighted a fast-growing ~$500 million CFRP aerospace cutting-tool opportunity growing ~9% per year, and issued a fiscal 2027 outlook for sales of $3.33-$3.45 billion
What went wrong
  • Full-year free operating cash flow was negative $79 million versus positive $121 million a year earlier, and operating cash flow was negative $4 million, on tungsten-driven working capital
  • Share repurchases stayed paused for most of the year (only $10 million bought back in Q1) as working-capital needs took priority
  • The fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS midpoint of $4.65 is roughly flat versus fiscal 2026's $4.57, as the price-raw timing benefit shrinks to about $0.39 (mostly first-half)
  • Fiscal 2027 carries a 23% year-over-year Bolivia FX headwind after the government ended its preferential exchange program
  • Higher debt from the financing actions adds an estimated $0.25 EPS drag, with interest expense of about $50 million expected in fiscal 2027
  • Transportation remains soft, with global light vehicle production expected to decline about a point in fiscal 2027, and primary working capital is guided to about 45% of sales by fiscal 2027 year-end

Management Commentary

Read the Q4 2026 summary ↗
Michael Pici
VP of Investor Relations, Kennametal

Thank you, operator. Welcome everyone, and thank you for joining us to review Kennametal's fourth quarter and fiscal 2026 results. This morning, we issued our earnings press release and posted our presentation slides on our website. We will be referring to that slide deck throughout today's call. I'm Michael Pici, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me on the call today are Sanjay Chowbey, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Pat Watson, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After Sanjay and Pat prepared remarks, we will open the line for questions. At this time, I'd like to direct your attention to our forward-looking disclosure statement. Today's discussion contains comments that constitute forward-looking statements and as such, involve a number of assumptions, risks, and uncertainties that could cause the company's actual results, performance, or achievements to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such statements.

These risk factors and uncertainties are detailed in Kennametal's SEC filings. In addition, we will be discussing non-GAAP financial measures on the call today. Reconciliations to GAAP financial measures that we believe are most directly comparable can be found on the back of the slide deck and on our Form 8-K on our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Sanjay.

Sanjay Chowbey
President and CEO, Kennametal

Thank you, Mike. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I will begin the call today with a brief review of the fiscal year, followed by an aerospace product spotlight and some end market commentary supporting our fiscal 2027 outlook. Pat will cover the quarterly financial results as well as the fiscal 2027 outlook. Finally, I'll make summary comments and then open the line for questions. Beginning on slide three for an overview of our strong fiscal year results. Throughout fiscal 2026, we continued to win new business and expand our share of wallet with key customers across diverse end markets like aerospace and defense, energy, transportation, and earthworks. Our success reflects the strength of our core competencies, which includes material science and process technology, application engineering, and a secure global supply chain. This combination of expertise, innovation, and global operations is a strong competitive advantage for us.

For the last several years, we have used a systematic approach to our growth initiatives, which includes identifying the most attractive opportunities and allocating the resources needed to capitalize on them. An important aspect of this approach is that it is repeatable and sustainable. I will cover an aerospace and defense example of this in a moment. We broadened our growth platforms this year through wins tied to AI-powered data centers, defense programs, mining projects, and next-generation vehicle powertrains. At the same time, we also advanced new digital machining solutions that enhance customer productivity. In addition to the growth we saw from our own strategic initiatives, we experienced improvements in several of our end markets. The key external market factors we track all have improved, including IPI, PMI, light vehicle production, and aircraft build rates. At the same time, rig counts stabilized during the year.

The final component of sales growth is price, driven by higher tungsten costs. Tungsten outside of China has now stabilized but remains at historically high levels. We implemented several pricing actions in response to this environment. As you have heard us say previously, we are committed to offsetting the impact that this additional cost is having on the business. Finally, we realized $27 million in restructuring savings this year and remain committed to $110 million of savings by the end of fiscal 2027. Let's move to our full year results. Full year organic sales increased 19% year-over-year, driven by additional price realization and modest volume. From an end market perspective for fiscal 2026, all end markets experienced growth on a constant currency basis. For the full year, adjusted EPS increased to $4.57 compared to $1.34 in the prior year.

Adjusted EBITDA margin was 26.9% compared to 15.2% in the prior year. As expected, free cash flow was adversely impacted by increased working capital requirements related to tungsten prices. Cash flow from operating activities was negative $4 million, and free operating cash flow was negative $79 million. Finally, we returned $71 million to shareholders, $61 million through dividends and $10 million through share repurchases. More details on our full year performance can be found on slide 18 in the appendix. Pat Watson will provide a detailed overview on the fourth quarter results in his prepared remarks. In summary, we are pleased with the way the team executed this year on growth, lean transformation, and cost out initiatives while also navigating this unique and unprecedented business environment. Before I provide an update on end market, I want to call your attention to slide four.

This highlights our metal cutting solution to address machining challenges aerospace customers have with carbon fiber reinforced plastics, or CFRP. This is one of the most exciting growth stories in our portfolio. CFRP is an extremely strong, rigid, and lightweight composite material that is difficult to machine. Due to its high strength to weight ratio, it is widely used in aerospace and automotive manufacturing, where fuel efficiency is a key focus. We are competing in a roughly $500 million market for cutting tools used on carbon fiber composites in aerospace. This market is expected to grow 9% a year through 2028, one of the fastest growing material groups we serve. Aerospace demand for lightweight composites remains strong. What makes this market especially attractive is the economics. Consumption for diamond coating cutting tools for CFRP is almost double that of cutting tools for aluminum. These can't be easily reconditioned.

Once they are consumed, customers come back for a replacement. That provides us a durable recurring revenue base. How we win here is again tied to our core competencies as we are leveraging our engineering and materials science expertise. We design innovative solutions using standard and custom tooling with proprietary geometry and material science. These deliver longer tool life and cleaner cuts. We pair that product advantage with deep channel relationships and a well-trained sales and application engineering team. This expands our reach and helps customers solve their manufacturing challenges. Let me give you an example. A customer recently faced a supply disruption from a competitor. Our team quickly stepped in, delivered a superior product and guaranteed supply, and we won that business outright. This is only one example of growth opportunities driving performance in aerospace.

Since composites are also used in applications across the transportation and general engineering end markets, we are excited about the prospects of leveraging our expertise to serve this growing application. We will apply the same disciplined, repeatable process I discussed earlier to this growth opportunity. This process helps us identify the most attractive opportunities, move resources quickly, and drive growth and share gains while leveraging our global supply chain to deliver innovative solutions on time and to specification. Turning to slide five. I want to frame the end market demand environment supporting our full year fiscal 2027 outlook. As a reminder, our full year outlook reflects forecast of specific market drivers and general market conditions. The top half of this slide reflects our sales outlook at the midpoint and includes price, volume, and market factors.

I will focus on the bottom half of the slide and the market conditions by end market. Aerospace and defense remains a structural growth engine. On the aerospace side, commercial OEM build rates continue to recover as supply chains normalize and production restrictions ease. In defense, we're seeing a proposed increase in the U.S. budget, coupled with NATO members planning to significantly raise spending. This provides a durable multi-year demand trajectory. Aerospace and defense also continues as a strategic growth initiatives for us. You might remember, at our last investor day, we talked about shifting resources from transportation to aerospace and defense in the Americas to grow our position in that market. That helped us drive share gains and new opportunities like the one I mentioned a few minutes ago.

Coupled with key wins on various defense opportunities, aerospace and defense is now projected to be our third largest end market. General engineering is stable. U.S. and European industrial production are both forecast up low single digits, and China has returned to modest expansion. Energy growth is anticipated to be strong. The U.S. land-based rig count has turned decisively. Prior estimates were a mid-single digit decline. Projections now forecast rig counts up high single digits. Customer sentiment has moved from cautious to improving, and combined with increased rig counts, supports a meaningful upward revision to this end market assumption. The trend in the market for AI data center power generation continues to experience rapid expansion, which provides further support for growth in this end market. There are some offsets we are monitoring. Transportation continues to be soft.

Global light vehicle production moved from up about a point in fiscal 2026 to down about a point in fiscal 2027, mainly in the Americas and Europe. In earthworks, mining share gains are partially offset by soft coal markets in the U.S. and China, though customers there are increasingly consolidating towards reliable suppliers like us. In road construction, we are assuming that normal seasonality and competitive pressures continue. Netting it out, our fiscal 2027 sales assumptions in constant currency and including price reflect broad-based growth across most end markets. We are confident that this market recovery is broad enough and the pricing environment firm enough to support our outlook and growth trajectory into fiscal 2027. Let me turn the call over to Pat, who will review the fourth quarter financial performance.

Pat Watson
VP and CFO, Kennametal

Thank you, Sanjay, and good morning, everyone. I will begin on slide six with a review of our fourth quarter operating results. Q4 was the fourth consecutive quarter of organic sales growth, with an organic sales increase of 42%. Our results for the quarter reflect strong price realization from our decisive pricing actions, driven by the unprecedented rise in tungsten costs and continued volume improvements in metal cutting. At the segment level, sales increased organically 22% in metal cutting and 74% in infrastructure. On a constant currency basis, Americas sales increased 60%, Asia Pacific increased 28%, and EMEA increased 24%. We experienced growth in all our end markets on a constant currency basis. Energy increased 101%, earthworks 76%, aerospace and defense 43%, general engineering 28%, and transportation 7%. I will provide more color when I review the segment results in a moment.

We achieved record-adjusted EBITDA and operating margins of 46.8% and 41.5%, respectively, versus 14.8% and 7.4% in the prior year quarter. The margin increase was driven by favorable timing of raw material pricing compared to costs of $252 million, non-raw material related pricing and tariff surcharges in metal cutting, higher sales and production volumes, and incremental year-over-year restructuring savings of approximately $5 million. These were partially offset by higher compensation costs, tariffs, and general inflation. Adjusted earnings per share was $2.96 in the quarter, a record high for the company, versus $0.34 in the prior year period. The main drivers of our EPS performance are highlighted on the bridge on Slide 7. The year-over-year effective operations this quarter was $2.55.

This reflects approximately $2.43 of favorable timing of raw material pricing compared to costs, non-raw material related pricing and tariff surcharges in metal cutting, higher sales and production volume, and incremental restructuring benefits $0.05 per share. These are partially offset by higher compensation costs, tariffs, and general inflation. A lower effective tax rate contributed a $0.09 benefit in the quarter, driven by geographic mix. The headwind of $0.07 in other is mainly driven by higher share count and slightly higher interest expense. You can also see $0.04 of transaction gains related to preferential Bolivia exchange rates. Currency and pension effects offset each other, and there is a $0.01 gain from the Inflation Reduction Act tax credit. Slides eight and nine detail the performance of our segments this quarter. Metal cutting sales grew 22% organically and 24% on a reported basis.

We outperformed the public peers again this quarter. That marks the fourth quarter in a row and extends a favorable trend that started four years ago. Regionally, on a constant currency basis, the Americas increased 29%, Asia Pacific increased 20%, and EMEA increased 16%. Looking at sales by end market on a constant currency basis, energy increased 36% this quarter. The growth was driven by price and continued AI data center project wins. Aerospace and defense grew 35% year-over-year as we capitalize on higher bill rates and accelerate share of wallet gains in tier suppliers in the Americas and EMEA. General engineering grew 25% year-over-year, driven by higher price realization and share gains in the indirect channel. For an example, in the Americas, we leveraged our strategic partnership with a large national distributor to expand our reach.

Lastly, transportation increased 7% year-over-year as higher price was partially offset by prior year project wins in Asia Pacific, including EV-related program activity. Metal cutting adjusted operating margin was 27.3% compared to 7.9% in the prior year, driven by favorable timing of raw material-related pricing compared to costs of $54 million, non-raw material pricing and tariff surcharges, higher sales and production volume, and restructuring savings of $4 million, partially offset by higher compensation costs and general inflation. Turn to slide nine for infrastructure. Organic sales grew by 74% year-over-year, with favorable foreign exchange of 1% and a favorable business day effect of 1%, partially offset by a divestiture effect of 3%. Regionally, on a constant currency basis, sales in the Americas increased 103%, EMEA grew 46%, and Asia Pacific grew 40%.

Looking at sales by end market on a constant currency basis, energy grew 135%, mainly driven by price in the Americas, partially offset by volume as we prioritized other end markets. Earthworks grew 76%, driven by price and higher volume in surface mining and construction from share gains due to availability of materials. Aerospace and defense grew 63%, driven by price and continued execution of our strategic initiatives in the Americas and EMEA. Lastly, general engineering grew 37% from price and volume growth in EMEA, partially offset by volume prioritization in the Americas. Adjusted operating margin increased to 58.4% compared to 6.8%, primarily due to favorable timing of raw material pricing compared to cost of $198 million, partially offset by lower sales and production volume, higher compensation costs and general inflation. Now, turning to slide 10 to review our free operating cash flow and balance sheet.

Free operating cash flow as a percent of adjusted net income was modestly better than we anticipated. Our full year free operating cash flow was negative $79 million compared to positive $121 million reported in the prior year. The change in free operating cash flow was primarily the result of increased working capital required by higher tungsten prices. Net capital expenditures was $75 million compared to $87 million in the prior year. In total, we returned $71 million to shareholders, $61 million through dividends, and $10 million from share repurchases. Our share repurchase program remained paused this quarter as a result of the higher tungsten pricing and corresponding working capital needs. During the quarter, we took actions to enhance liquidity, extend debt maturities to position the company to capture near-term growth opportunities.

These actions provide additional liquidity to support near-term tungsten-related working capital needs and preserve financial flexibility to respond to future market developments while maintaining balance sheet discipline. At quarter end, we had combined cash and revolver availability of approximately $926 million, which includes the additional $200 million available by exercising the accordion feature on our revolver. We were well within our financial covenants. Additionally, we had full availability of our new $500 million term loan. As is customary, this facility is a use-it-or-lose-it proposition. So we intend to fully draw the new term loan during the September quarter and pay down any revolver borrowings. Going forward, the term loan can be paid down within the three-year term, which gives us the flexibility to scale down the balance sheet if working capital needs decline.

With the refinancing of the 2028 notes, the remaining $91 million of outstanding notes were redeemed on July 1. We have meaningfully extended our debt maturity profile. Our nearest debt maturity is July 2029, and our public notes maturities are now extended to 2031 and 2036, respectively. The full balance sheet can be found on slide 22 in the appendix. Turning to slide 11 regarding our full year outlook. We are providing a range for both the full year and the first quarter, beginning with the full year. We expect FY 2027 sales to be between $3.33 billion and $3.45 billion, with volume ranging from 1%-4%, price and tariff surcharges ranging from approximately 40%-43%, and a neutral effect from foreign exchange. We have been successful and remain committed to achieving price. As Sanjay noted earlier in his remarks, most end market indicators maintain positive momentum into FY 2027.

At the midpoint of constant currency and including price, we expect all end markets to increase high double digits year-over-year. Our annual outlook also assumes that tungsten will remain stable at the current level. Additionally, we are assuming that there is no material effect on customer activity as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. Approximately $10 million of rollover savings from our previously announced restructuring initiative has been included. We expect interest expense of approximately $50 million due to the additional borrowings to fund working capital requirements and an effective tax rate of approximately 25%. We expect adjusted EPS in the range of $4.15-$5.15. On the cash side, the full year outlook for working capital expenditures is $85 million, and the outlook for primary working capital is 45% by fiscal year end.

Taken together, we expect free operating cash flow to be approximately 20% of adjusted net income, reflecting the working capital pressure from the rise in cost of tungsten. The bridge on slide 12 highlights the main drivers impacting EPS at the midpoint of our outlook. The bridge walks you from our FY 2026 adjusted EPS of $4.57 to the midpoint of our FY 2027 outlook of $4.65. Pretty flat on the surface. Underneath that roughly flat headline number, the core earnings engine of the business continues to strengthen. There's a lot going on underneath, so let me unpack it. Starting with the tailwinds. First, operations adds about $0.53. Favorability of raw material pricing compared to costs is positive $0.39 for the full year, with favorability occurring in the first half of the year, most significantly in the first quarter.

Higher sales and production volume as end markets continue to improve and we execute on the share gain initiatives, together with lower incentive compensation, approximately $0.18, and about $0.10 of restructuring savings, partially offset by higher raw material costs as tungsten remains at elevated levels and higher wages in general inflation. We also expect a $0.17 benefit from the IRA Advanced Manufacturing Credit. To the headwinds. Year-over-year, we will see a 23% Bolivia FX headwind as the Bolivian government has ended the preferential program. Higher interest expense is a $0.25 drag, reflecting our higher debt levels following the recent financing actions, and other items of about $0.08, primarily a higher share count of $0.07. Taxes and pension are $0.04 and $0.02 respectively. Net it all together, and we arrive at an FY 2027 midpoint of $4.65.

Sanjay Chowbey
President and CEO, Kennametal

Thank you, Pat. Turning to slide 14. Let me take a moment to summarize. We delivered a solid fiscal 2026, driven by price and modest improvements in our end markets, project wins on the commercial side, and cost improvement actions. We continue to make steady progress on our strategic growth initiatives, lean transformation, and structural cost improvement, while also exploring ways to strengthen our portfolio over time. We are well-positioned to continue to deliver on our commitments in fiscal 2027 and remain confident in our plan for long-term value creation for our shareholders. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

Analyst Q&A

Angel Castillo — Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Hi, good morning, congrats on the strong quarter. Pat, would just love to go back to the normalized and the bridge that you provided. I guess you gave a lot of good color on the slides, but can you just help me reconcile a couple of things? If I just take the $0.39 EPS from raw material timing for fiscal year 2027, then also layer in the $3.11 that I think you had in the fiscal year 2026 guide, it implies an underlying kind of normalized of $1.15 if I just leave everything else unchanged. It seems like there's a number of puts and takes, but as I look at the normalized earnings, I used to think about it as closer to $1.60.
Has anything changed in terms of what you view as the underlying kind of normalized run rate of the earnings bridge for the business? As you think about that exit rate of fiscal year 2027, just help us kind of level set what am I missing or what has changed?
Pat Watson — VP and CFO, Kennametal
No, I think, Angel, there are two things to consider, right? Let's go back to a simple view of let's say, FY 2026. When we talked a quarter ago, we talked about a midpoint of $3.88 and price raw effect in the year about $2.45 and about $0.20 tailwind going into 2027 from a comp perspective. That kind of gets you a clean FY 2026 of $1.63, right? I would say, as you think about those numbers in the context now of what actually happened in the fourth quarter, EPS came in a bit higher, $4.57, really driven by a little bit of better pricing, a little better raw material. That's why that price raw number went from $2.45 to $3.11. All right? That comp number came in a little bit tighter, so that's an $0.18 tailwind going into FY 2027, so $1.64.
$1.63 in terms of what we thought that number was 90 days ago, $1.64 kind of in the world we're living in now. I think as well as you think about what's happening in the context of FY 2027, yes, you have $0.39 for the full year, right? I think you got to figure into that the first half of the year is going to be positive. All right? As we talked about in the prepared remarks, beginning of the third quarter, that price raw tailwind's going to be substantially behind us at that point in time. The benefit that we saw in FY 2026, the $0.39 in Q3, the $2.43 in Q4 goes away. Okay?
You have these fundamental two halves where you're going to have strong price raw in the first half, then on a year-over-year base, it's going to be a headwind for us.
Angel Castillo — Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Just maybe kind of putting all that together, the dots together, you had the $1.63 was before. What would you kind of consider now you're normalized when we put all that together?
Pat Watson — VP and CFO, Kennametal
In terms of last year for FY 2026, $1.64.
Angel Castillo — Analyst, Morgan Stanley
No, for fiscal year 2027. When I kind of put all that together.
Pat Watson — VP and CFO, Kennametal
From a fiscal year 2027 perspective, you simply need to take back out the full amount of tungsten, right? From a FY 2026 perspective, $2.43+ the $0.39.
Angel Castillo — Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Got it. Just maybe as a second question here, just in terms of the organic growth, could you just help us understand for the fiscal or 4Q, was volume for the total company up, or was there a little bit of a drag when you kind of put all the pieces together? Just curious, you talked about acceleration or good kind of improvements in some of the end markets here. Just curious how your kind of order trends right now are shaping up versus that 1%-4% volume growth outlook.
Pat Watson — VP and CFO, Kennametal
Certainly. As we think about across the business, I'd say the business in total, low single digits from a volume perspective, a little bit different in terms of what's going on between the two businesses. Metal cutting a bit higher, mid-single digit volume performance in Q4. Infrastructure, as you talked about, was volumetrically more flat. There is inside of infrastructure there, we did make some choices around portfolio in terms of customers we're serving and how we're utilizing our material to drive ultimately the best return on the tungsten we have. Sanjay, do you want to add anything to that from a markets perspective?
Sanjay Chowbey — President and CEO, Kennametal
Angel, good morning. I'm just going to add to your second part of the question. Of course, as you know, that we have had three years of slow burn industrial production being soft. 2026 was first year where we saw mid-single digit, low single digit type of numbers throughout the year. Now as we are looking at it, we do expect the low single digit at the midpoint. We have given you 2.5% volume for fiscal 2027. That is definitely a positive news because that's going to build upon the base that we have in fiscal 2026. I will give you more color here by segment level. Aerospace defense will be the strongest of that. The next will be energy, and following that will be general engineering, where we continue to see improvement in IPI across the board.
You come into earthworks, which is flattish, and transportation being the one that is negative slightly.
Angel Castillo — Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Very helpful. Thank you.
Steve Barger — Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Pat Watson — VP and CFO, Kennametal
Hey, Steve.
Steve Barger — Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
In infrastructure, you took share in earthworks due to availability of materials. You just talked about that. You also, when you're prioritizing volume and energy in general engineering, does that mean on the whole you were short material and lost potential sales due to the prioritization?
Sanjay Chowbey — President and CEO, Kennametal
No, Steve, we are not short. What we're saying is that if as we see the growth in overall volume, including in aerospace and defense and the areas where we do consume a lot more tungsten, we did prioritize what will drive the best return for our shareholders and how we get the best return on tungsten that we have. There was no shortage, but we were definitely allocating what we have. While there was no shortage, let's just say that even if we maintain even supply, which we did secure, we were allocating based on where we can get the best return.
Steve Barger — Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Got it. You have enough material for everybody, but you didn't sell to everybody because you want to drive those returns.
Sanjay Chowbey — President and CEO, Kennametal
Yeah. I think as you might have heard from you and others, that we could actually take more business if we can go get lot more tungsten material. That doesn't mean that we have shortage. We are managing our overall supply chain and processing capacity because remember, it's not just about the ore. In our business, processing capacity is also one of the competitive advantage, which we do have. That's what we have to manage, how we allocate that capacity also.
Steve Barger — Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Okay. Well, when I look at the 1%-4% volume guidance for FY 2027, in the context of the cycle inflection, how much of that is what the market's giving you, and how much is share gain would you estimate?
Sanjay Chowbey — President and CEO, Kennametal
Yeah. We're not breaking it down specifically, but I can tell you that it will be coming from both. As we have said before that above market growth 100 to 200 basis point is our target. Whatever market does, we want to definitely do 100 to 200 basis point better than market. That gives you a rough idea that's where we will be in terms of breakdown between market versus the strategic growth or so-called our own initiatives.
Steve Barger — Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Just to clarify, if the market's up 1% or 2% and your guidance is 1%-4%, your outgrowth should account for basically all of that?
Sanjay Chowbey — President and CEO, Kennametal
No. Let me go with the, Sorry, go ahead.
Steve Barger — Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Yeah.
Sanjay Chowbey — President and CEO, Kennametal
Finish your question.
Steve Barger — Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
No, I'm just trying to break apart what you consider outgrowth versus share gain.
Sanjay Chowbey — President and CEO, Kennametal
If you look at the overall volume growth that we have said, 1%-4%. In that, share gain will be 1%-2%.
Steve Barger — Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Okay.
Sanjay Chowbey — President and CEO, Kennametal
The rest is market.
Steve Barger — Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Yeah.
Sanjay Chowbey — President and CEO, Kennametal
Rest is market.
Chris Dankert — Analyst, D.A. Davidson
Hey, morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions.[]
Again, apologies. A quick just clarification. I got a little bit lost on the explanation on price cost for fiscal 2027 specifically. Again, if we take the $3.11 from this year and the $0.39 of raw material timing that we're benefiting from in 2027, back that out, I'm coming to kind of a core X price cost of $1.15. Is that right? If not, could you just one more time run me through that? Apologies.
Pat Watson — VP and CFO, Kennametal
I think, yeah Chris, I think you've got to take in the other factors that are in play there as you build it up. Right? Clearly in terms of versus the prior year and if you're bridging it all the way back, you've got the Bolivia FX you got to take out of there, too. Right? Since the Bolivian government ended that preferential exchange rate program here this quarter. Right? When I think about that price raw, certainly we've got the $0.39 going on here in FY 2027. Right? We've got the excuse me, $3.11 going on from the prior year. That's the double stack, so to speak. Right? If you pull all of that out.
Chris Dankert — Analyst, D.A. Davidson
Okay. Got it. I hadn't seen anything in the presentation. Was there any IEEPA benefit anywhere in the numbers here? Do we expect any benefit? Maybe just stake out anything around the tariff recovery.
Sanjay Chowbey — President and CEO, Kennametal
Yes, Chris. We have applied for refunds, and we have received some but it was immaterial to report. We continue to apply. Our overall plan at this point is that we will reinvest that to strengthen our overall supply chain security, supply network optimization, and also product and service development to serve our customers better. I would like to take the opportunity also to tell you that as you look at this situation that we were dealing with over the last year and a half. Initially we did incur some cost, we implemented surcharges, that was not our first action. First thing we did is to make sure that we have production moves. We moved several thousand parts around the world. We did supply chain network optimization, we passed along some of the surcharges.
Of course, even with the new policies in place, tariffs are more or less in the similar zone. That's how we are looking at it, and we're managing it in an overall sense. We'll continue to monitor and take appropriate actions.
Chris Dankert — Analyst, D.A. Davidson
Yeah. Thanks much for the color, guys.
Stephen Volkmann — Analyst, Jefferies
Good morning, guys. Pat, thank you for the sort of cadence through 2027. Obviously the key, and at least in my humble opinion is sort of when we get back to kind of the core earnings of the company. You talked about, I think, mid-teens EBITDA margin as sort of the 4Q exit rate for 2027. I just want to make sure I had that right.
Pat Watson — VP and CFO, Kennametal
That's right, Steve. Yeah.
Stephen Volkmann — Analyst, Jefferies
Okay, good. All right. Two questions about that. One is, I guess, we sort of give up the timing arbitrage on the raws here, obviously. Revenue will sort of stay in the ZIP code it's in, I guess, assuming that tungsten stays where it is. As I just do the sort of the dumb math, it feels like you're talking about kind of a [$600 million in EBITDA] run rate to exit, annual run rate to exit 4Q. Mid-teens margin on $3 billion-ish of sales. Is that the right way to think about the annualized way to do that? Sorry if this is confusing.
Pat Watson — VP and CFO, Kennametal
Yeah. I guess the way I would think about that, Steve, let's think about this from the standpoint of FY 2027 from an overall outlook perspective, you've got basically sit there what's called $3.4 billion roughly. Okay? If you think about that, you take that now forward a year, right. In a flat, tungsten environment that's the number you're going to iterate off of small amount of incremental price, whatever you think the incremental volume is. Right? That's where I would take that forward. From an EBITDA perspective, yeah, that fourth quarter mid-teens EBITDA, right? That I would expect based on what we know today, that's going to be a clean price raw quarter. Right? You can apply, say, normal seasonality of the business then going forward, to really generate what that FY 2028 EBITDA profile would be.
Stephen Volkmann — Analyst, Jefferies
Got it. Okay. Helpful. Switching to the free cash flow. You mentioned that turns positive, I think in the second half of FY 2027. Is this a situation where we're going to get 150% or 200% free cash flow at some point and kind of recapture this? Or does it just slowly go back to something higher than 20?
Pat Watson — VP and CFO, Kennametal
Yeah, I would say when you think about this year and then how we've talked about what's going on from a price raw perspective, talking about cash flow effectively being the mirror image of that, right? When I think about how cash flow is going to develop this year, Q1 is going to be a sizable cash draw. To put a fine point on that, probably in terms of just dollars, around $200 million. I would expect that that's going to basically be, call it the high water mark, right, for the cash draw here. In Q2, that would step down a little bit, right? In Q3, expectation is that now reflects positive, right? That's more or less matching up with what's happening on the income statement on the price raw benefit. Okay?
It's just again, somewhat the mirror image of that. That's really driven by inventory valuation, right? Obviously you've seen there's a significant step up here in inventory in the fourth quarter, anticipating other sizable inventory build here on valuation in Q3, inventory will basically hit its peak for us here in the second quarter.
Stephen Volkmann — Analyst, Jefferies
Okay.
Pat Watson — VP and CFO, Kennametal
Now we get in the back half of the year should have good positive cash flow to it.
Stephen Volkmann — Analyst, Jefferies
Is FY 2028 way above 100% or just directionally?
Pat Watson — VP and CFO, Kennametal
I would simply say with respect to FY 2028 and kind of beyond, we would return to a normalized cash generation profile. Again, assuming tungsten remains stable.
Stephen Volkmann — Analyst, Jefferies
Understood. Appreciate it.
Chris Dankert — Analyst, D.A. Davidson
Hey, guys. Thanks for the follow-up here. Hoping you can help me out on one other aspect of the fiscal 2027 guide. If I look at the operations bucket, we're looking at $0.53 for the year. If I back out the things you flagged there, the raw materials, lower incentive comp, restructuring, I'm kind of left with a core volume wage inflation number that's like a negative 15, 18, whatever EPS impact. How are we getting negative contribution on kind of the core volume? Maybe just again, apologies if I'm misinterpreting that.
Pat Watson — VP and CFO, Kennametal
Yeah. The way I look at that in terms of what's sitting in there, right? You got the $0.53, obviously you got favorability in the raw material timing of $0.39. You've got the favorability on the comp coming in as well. Right? You should have some favorability coming through obviously on the restructuring. Going to have a little bit of, I'll just call it the normal wage inflation and things like that are going on in the course of the business. This is obviously at the midpoint as well, right? When you think about this over the context of the outlook, the outlook has some variability build to price into it as well. Just again, given the sheer amount of tungsten going through the business today and how much price we're going after.
Chris Dankert — Analyst, D.A. Davidson
Yeah. Thanks for that Pat. Appreciate the color.
Sanjay Chowbey — President and CEO, Kennametal
Thank you, operator. Thank you everyone for joining the call today. As always, we appreciate your interest and support. Please don't hesitate to reach out to Mike if you have any questions. Have a great day.
Source: KENNAMETAL INC earnings call transcript (2026-08-05). Management commentary and analyst Q&A are reproduced as delivered; speaker roles as stated on the call.

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