CF Industries reported its results for the full year and Q4 of 2025 yesterday afternoon. On this call, we'll review the results, discuss our outlook, and then host a question-and-answer session. Yesterday afternoon, we posted results for the full year 2025, in which we generated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.9 billion. Starting with safety, our full-year recordable incident rate was 0.26 incidents per 200,000 hours worked, and we experienced our lowest-ever number of process safety events.

This included our partners securing offtake from new low-carbon ammonia demand sources and receiving Contract for Difference awards from the Japanese government. Finally, we continue to efficiently convert adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow at a rate outpacing material and industrial sector averages, as you can see on slide 10. Net cash from operations in 2025 was $2.75 billion, and free cash flow was approximately $1.8 billion. Given our high-performing, high-margin business, progress on strategic initiatives, and what we believe are constructive global nitrogen industry dynamics ahead, we expect to continue to generate substantial free cash flow.

As a result, we remain firmly committed to our capital allocation framework, investing in the business for growth and returning capital to long-term shareholders. New capacity has been delayed, global production has not maintained historical levels, and demand continues to grow. Strong demand, led by India, Brazil, and North America, as well by European buyers securing volumes before the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism was implemented, has pushed demand to the right. India's February urea tender is atypical for this time of year, suggesting demand continues to meaningfully outstrip lower than expected domestic production.

What went well
  • Q4 2025 net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $404 million, or $2.59 per diluted share, with EBITDA of $731 million and adjusted EBITDA of $821 million.
  • Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.9 billion (net earnings ~$1.5 billion, or $8.97 per diluted share), well above the ~$2.5 billion mid-cycle level, as the global nitrogen market stayed tighter than expected.
  • Returned $1.7 billion to shareholders in 2025, including $340 million to repurchase 4.1 million shares in Q4 that completed the $3 billion 2022 program; a new $2 billion program (~$1.7 billion remaining) has commenced.
  • Blue Point JV with JERA and Mitsui progressed well, hitting all planned 2025 milestones, with partners securing new low-carbon ammonia offtake and Contract for Difference awards from the Japanese government; civil work begins Q1 2026.
  • Secured first low-carbon ammonia sales at a premium, with low-carbon contracts already in place for 2026 and growing demand across Europe, Asia, and Africa.
  • Strong operational and commercial performance: 10.1 million tons of gross ammonia produced at a 97% utilization rate, a strong fall 2025 North American ammonia application season, and a completed $1 billion senior notes offering to refinance 2026 maturities.
What went wrong
  • November incident at the Yazoo City, Mississippi complex took the ammonium nitrate plant (and effectively the whole complex) offline until Q4 2026 at the earliest, cutting expected 2026 network output to ~9.5 million tons of gross ammonia.
  • Yazoo City outage carries a full-year 2026 EBITDA impact of roughly $200 million, which the company hopes to offset largely or fully through business-interruption insurance proceeds received during 2026.
  • Recorded two Q4 impairment charges totaling $76 million: $51 million for the Donaldsonville electrolyzer pilot the company decided to stop funding given its return profile, plus $25 million tied to the Yazoo City incident.
  • Management flagged elevated market and geopolitical risk, including Middle East/Iran supply concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, and expects a pricing correction in the back half of 2026 as the season shifts to the Southern Hemisphere.

More on CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

Reported 2026-02-19 · figures from the CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Q4 2025 earnings call.

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