Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and a detailed earnings presentation, which is available on our Investor Relations website. We have provided reconciliation of these measures to GAAP in our earnings release to the extent reasonably available. In order to ensure participation by all those on the call today, please limit yourself to one question and return to the queue for any additional follow-ups. FRE margin for the first half was also a record 48%, and we hit record AUM of $465 billion.

We also brought in $51 billion of organic inflows over the past 12 months. Equities are near record highs and credit spreads are also near record-tight levels. As we all know, confidence is the greatest market elixir, and with this increase in confidence, we're seeing continued demand for private capital. Across the firm, we deployed $26 billion in the first half of 2025.

I would also like to highlight how much capital we're returning to investors. While the corporate private equity market broadly has faced criticism for low levels of capital return to investors, we've defied that trend. real estate fund raised across the industry in the past 18 months, a real reflection of the performance excellence of our team and the power of our global brand. In asset-backed finance, a key area of growth for Carlyle, we see lots of momentum.

What went well
  • Carlyle delivered a record FRE of $323 million, up 18% year-over-year, with year-to-date FRE of $634 million also up 18%.
  • FRE margin for the first half was a record 48%.
  • Record AUM of $465 billion was reached, and first-half DE of $2.05 per share ($886 million) was the highest first-half DE the firm has ever had.
  • Organic inflows were $28 billion in the first half and $51 billion over the past 12 months, a 12% organic growth rate.
  • Firm-wide realized proceeds were up nearly 40% year-over-year, and Carlyle returned almost $15 billion to investors over the last 12 months, 17% of the portfolio and three times the industry average.
  • Carlyle AlpInvest had a record quarter with fee revenues up more than 50% and FRE nearly doubling year-over-year, reaching record FRE of $68 million (year-to-date FRE up more than 80%) at a 54% margin.
  • The firm closed its 10th U.S. real estate fund at $9 billion, nearly 15% larger than its predecessor and the largest U.S. real estate fund raised industry-wide in the past 18 months.
  • Global Credit delivered $111 million in FRE, up 37% year-over-year, with first-half FRE of $215 million up 41% organically, and asset-backed finance AUM up 40% year-over-year.
  • Capital markets fees were $48 million in the quarter and $126 million year-to-date, more than double last year, with over $230 million generated over the last 12 months.
  • Evergreen perpetual strategies reached almost $30 billion of AUM, up nearly 40% year-over-year, and CAPM assets increased nearly sixfold over the last year.
  • The firm launched an exclusive private equity secondary partnership with UBS for their international wealth clients, and Fortitude Re closed $8 billion of reinsurance contracts in July.
  • Carlyle raised its full-year FRE growth outlook to approximately 10% (from 6%) and its inflows outlook to $50 billion (from $40 billion).
What went wrong
  • CP7's net IRR remains stuck at around 8%, and management acknowledged CP7 will not be its best fund with work still to do on net IRRs.
  • The realized performance fee (cash carry) tipping point for CP7 depends on reaching the right DPI level, making some carry potentially more of a 2026 story.
  • The real estate fundraising environment was described as one of the most challenging the team can recall, possibly ever.
  • Management fees were characterized in the context of GPE facing a rate of decline, with the goal being to get back to year-on-year growth in 2026.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodCurrent guidance
Full-year FRE growthfull year 2025approximately 10%, with potential upside if markets improve
Full-year inflowsfull year 2025approximately $50 billion
GPE management fee rate of decline2025expected to be meaningfully below 7%, potentially inflecting to growth in 2026
CPEP wealth product launchsecond half of 2025coming online in the second half of the year

Performance Breakdown

MetricYoYNote
FRE (quarter) +18% record $323 million driven by broad-based momentum across the platform
Carlyle AlpInvest FRE nearly doubled / up more than 80% year-to-date 43% increase in management fees and exceptional organic growth in secondaries and co-investment
Global Credit FRE +37% strong capital markets activity, increased fee-related performance revenue and 11% growth in management fees
Capital markets fees (year-to-date) more than double $126 million year-to-date as the strategic initiative scaled
Firm-wide realized proceeds +40% improving exit environment; returned almost $15 billion over 12 months, three times the industry average
Deployment (first half) +50% $26 billion deployed as the firm invested with conviction
Asset-backed finance AUM +40% continued rapid scaling including the Citigroup fintech specialty lending collaboration
Evergreen perpetual strategy AUM +40% $2.2 billion raised in the quarter; CAPM assets up nearly sixfold over the year
U.S. buyout fund performance (CP7 and CP8) +17% to +20% 3%-4% appreciation in the quarter across the two most recent U.S. buyout funds

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious mentionCurrent periodTrend
Returning capital to investorsPE industry broadly criticized for low capital returnCarlyle defied the trend, returning almost $15 billion over 12 months at three times the industry average
Carlyle AlpInvest / secondaries growth patternhistorically step-function growth with flat periods between fund raisesevolving to consistent growth driven by CAPM, the UBS partnership and larger successive funds, though not expected to sustain 45% annually
Global wealth strategyno systematic wealth strategy when Harvey Schwartz arrivedthree flagship funds (CTAC, AlpInvest Solutions, CPEP in H2) plus the exclusive UBS partnership, with a potential retirement executive order as a tailwind
Asset-backed finance and insurance convergencebegan on the back of the Fortitude Re partnershipsix origination platform partnerships, ABF becoming mainstream across sovereigns, institutions and pensions, plus the Citigroup fintech collaboration
Leadership appointmentsprior structureJohn Redett, Mark Jenkins and Jeff Nettleman named Co-Presidents, and Justin Plouffe appointed new CFO effective January
Capital markets business qualityno strategy around capital markets fees when Harvey Schwartz arrivedhigh-quality non-balance-sheet fees focused only on Carlyle deals, with organic upside as more funds come online

Q&A Summary

Bill Katz of TD Cowen asked John Redett to unpack the drivers of the stepped-up FRE growth guidance (first half versus second half) and asked Harvey Schwartz about laying out intermediate-term 2026 targets.
John Redett said the revised outlook reflects strong momentum across the platform with FRE up 18%, driven by exceptional organic AlpInvest growth, strong capital markets revenue and heavy wealth investment, with upside if markets improve; Harvey Schwartz said the firm may contemplate longer-duration metrics but is not committing to five-year targets.
Steven Chubak of Wolfe Research asked about an achievable run-rate for wealth flows and initial receptivity to the CPEP launch.
Harvey Schwartz said the firm systematically repositioned the wealth platform around its global brand and partners, with three flagship funds including CPEP coming in H2 creating a natural flywheel, and that momentum is palpable and just getting started.
Alex Blostein of Goldman Sachs asked how Carlyle views the credit business over the next couple of years, specifically asset-backed finance and investment-grade private credit.
Harvey Schwartz described the convergence of insurance and private credit, with ABF as another sleeve of private investment grade, and Carlyle's strategy of selectively establishing six collaborative origination partnerships (citing the Discover transaction) in a growing market.
Ben Budish of Barclays asked about the near-term outlook for AlpInvest and whether its FRE could double again at the same speed given the moving fundraising parts.
John Redett said AlpInvest's historical step-function growth is evolving to consistent growth driven by CAPM, larger successive funds (secondaries fund 65% committed) and the UBS partnership, and while he would not promise 45% annual growth the business has tremendous growth attributes.
Brian McKenna of Citizens asked John Redett about his priorities returning to global private equity and how to permanently accelerate growth in that segment.
John Redett said cross-platform collaboration is already a strong cultural hallmark, U.S. and Asia PE performance is very strong (up 3%-4% in the quarter, 17%-20% over 12 months), performance drives realizations and carry, and he feels good about stepping into a well-performing business; Harvey Schwartz added John leading CPEP will drive best practices.
Patrick Davitt of Autonomous Research asked about the tipping point for taking cash carry on CP7 realizations given its 8% net IRR and the tenor of realized performance fees in the second half.
John Redett said CP7 will not be the best fund but has appreciated 17%, CP8 is a second-quartile fund up 20% with healthy DPI, the only lever is continued performance, and accrued carry on the balance sheet is $2.9 billion (up 30%, roughly $8 per share).
Brian Bedell of Deutsche Bank asked whether second-half capital markets fees can exceed the first half and about long-term organic growth drivers into 2026.
Harvey Schwartz cited three organic drivers (new fund vintages gaining fee ability, operating leverage to the environment and muscle memory, and platform scale in areas like ABF), noting the business could exceed a prior ~$300 million peak in the right environment; John Redett stressed the high-quality, non-balance-sheet, Carlyle-only nature of the fees.
Ken Worthington of JP Morgan asked Harvey Schwartz to flesh out the path forward and ongoing vision for the wealth business.
Harvey Schwartz (joking 'global domination') emphasized the requirements for wealth success: brand recognition from the 1987-founded firm's global trust and long Japan/Asia history, platform diversification including the countercyclical AlpInvest, and deep advisor engagement, calling it early days in a global trend.
Glenn Schorr of Evercore asked whether the industry and Carlyle can sustain strong secondaries returns amid heavy capital raising and narrowing discounts.
John Redett said the secondaries industry has strong cyclical and secular tailwinds, is 10-15 years behind corporate PE with only a handful of large-scale players, growing ~40% per annum, and is used increasingly as an annual liquidity rebalancing mechanism; Harvey Schwartz added that as a hyperscaler with 25 years of history it is a corporate finance solutions business, not just secondaries.
Michael Cyprys of Morgan Stanley asked how Carlyle will leverage its wealth success across a broader product suite, including hybrid public-private products and the 401(k) channel.
Harvey Schwartz said the key is putting the client at the center, getting retirement solutions right with regulators, and building only the right solutions (regional funds, tilts, combinations) from its hyperscaler secondaries capabilities rather than building for the sake of building.
Dan Fannon of Jefferies asked for an update on the insurance opportunity and Fortitude's growth contribution for the back half and longer term.
John Redett said Fortitude has been a very good investment and big growth driver, that 2024 was deliberately quiet to absorb the Lincoln transaction, activity ramped in 2025 with a $4 billion deal closed in Q1 and Unum closing July 1, the pipeline is busier than in years, and Carlyle is the most active reinsurance business in Japan with flexibility to attack flow insurance.
Kyle Voigt of KBW asked about the progression of GPE management fees and a potential inflection to growth in 2026, and about LP receptivity to U.S. buyout ahead of CP9.
Harvey Schwartz said LP engagement has been great, the PE industry was tagged for not returning capital but Carlyle is an outlier returning three times the industry average, acknowledged some net IRRs are not satisfactory with work to do, and described the macro environment as pro-growth and market conditions as friendly at the moment.

More on Carlyle Group Inc.

Reported 2025-08-06 · figures from the Carlyle Group Inc. Q2 2025 earnings call.

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