Consolidated adjusted EBITDA during the quarter reached $55 million, while year-to-date amounted to $91 million. Adjusted EBITDA marked a 60% year-over-year decline in both periods, reaching $55 million during the quarter and $91 million year-to-date. On the other hand, total production in our farming business reported a 12% year-over-year increase explained by higher planted area, as well as a record productivity in our rice operations. This was due to a selective, slower crushing done in early 2025, focused on cane with limited growth potential and a rainy second quarter that consequently slowed down our crushing phase.

Within our ethanol production, we are maximizing the production of hydrous ethanol, given the better margin. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $68 million during the second quarter and $98 million for the first half of the year. Finally, to conclude with the sugar, ethanol, and energy business, please turn to slide 10, where we would like to briefly talk about the current outlook. On the demand side, parity at the pump continues to favor ethanol consumption, and new demand has emerged with the implementation of the E30 ethanol mandate.

In rice, our work on seed genetics and the implementation of new technologies resulted in an average yield of 8 tons per hectare, a new record for this business. Adjusted EBITDA for the farming business totaled $1 million during the quarter, whereas year-to-date amounted to $18 million. Starting with our crops segment, the year-over-year decrease in results was mainly driven by an uneven year-over-year comparison, as in April 2024, we sold La Pecuaria farm, which generated $15 million in adjusted EBITDA. Moving on to rice, the decline in adjusted EBITDA during both periods was mostly explained by the outlier prices reported the prior year, coupled with higher costs in U.S.

What went well
  • Ethanol commercialization was strong: the company sold roughly 320,000 cubic meters of ethanol at an average net price near BRL 2,700/cubic meter, 18% higher year over year, by strategically selling carryover stock as prices recovered.
  • The farming business delivered a 12% year-over-year increase in total production on higher planted area and a record rice productivity of 8 tons per hectare, aided by proprietary seed genetics and premium rice varieties that partly offset falling global prices.
  • Operational flexibility held the annual crushing forecast intact despite extreme dry weather and a June cold front, thanks to a continuous-harvest model, expanded plantation, storage capacity to switch between sugar and ethanol, and higher third-party cane sourcing.
  • Management confirmed a constructive Tether relationship following the April 2025 tender offer - a new nine-member board (five new members plus four existing) supporting the company's disciplined capital-allocation culture - and signed a memorandum of understanding with Tether to test using ~5% of Mato Grosso do Sul energy output for Bitcoin mining, potentially monetizing power at an implied US$80-120/MWh.
What went wrong
  • Consolidated adjusted EBITDA fell about 60% year over year to US$55 million for the quarter (US$91 million year-to-date), driven by biological-asset mark-to-market losses, lower sugar/ethanol production and lower crop and rice prices.
  • Sugar, ethanol and energy crushing volume was 20% lower year over year (3.4 million tons in the quarter; 4.9 million tons YTD) on fewer effective milling days from April rains and a selective slower start to the season, and productivity/TRS remained below the prior year on the lagging effect of drought and frost.
  • The farming business earned only US$1 million adjusted EBITDA in the quarter (US$18 million YTD); crops were pressured by a ~40% drop in peanut prices, a tough year-over-year comparison against the April 2024 sale of La Pecuaria farm (US$15 million EBITDA), and higher U.S.-dollar costs.
  • Net debt rose 11% year over year to US$699 million and net leverage increased about one turn to 2.3x on higher working-capital borrowings and weaker consolidated results.
  • Results absorbed one-off expenses related to Tether's tender offer, and a ~50% collapse in long-grain rice prices weighed on the rice business.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodCurrent guidance
Annual sugarcane crushingFY2025Reaffirmed in line with 2024 (July crushing >1.5M tons; daily records in August), assuming normal weather
Crops leased area2025/26 campaignReducing leased/planted area by ~30% (about 20,000 hectares) to improve per-hectare margins
Net leverageFY2025Expected to end the year around 2x adjusted EBITDA (internal comfort ceiling)
Sugar hedging2025/20262025 sugar partly unhedged and 2026 largely open to capture upside; ~5% of 2026 hedged at $0.178/lb

Performance Breakdown

MetricYoYNote
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA US$55M quarter / US$91M YTD (-60%) Biological-asset and commodity-hedge mark-to-market losses, lower SE&E production and lower crop/rice prices.
Sales US$392M quarter / US$716M YTD Higher volumes across operations offset by lower prices for most products.
SE&E adjusted EBITDA US$68M quarter / US$98M H1 Higher sales offset by mark-to-market losses on lower harvested-cane volume and smaller hedge gains.
Farming adjusted EBITDA US$1M quarter / US$18M YTD Lower crop/rice prices, La Pecuaria sale comparison, higher USD costs; dairy stable.
Net debt / leverage US$699M (+11%); 2.3x Higher short-term working-capital borrowings amid lower results.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious mentionCurrent periodTrend
Tether control & governanceTender offer consummated April 2025New board (5 new + 4 existing); supportive of disciplined capital allocation; Bitcoin-mining MOU to monetize ~5% of MS energy
Weather & the commodity down-cycleDrought/early-2025 drynessApril rains and a June frost cut milling days and TRS; low commodity prices pressure crops, rice and sugar
Sugar vs ethanol flexibilityMaximizing sugar in H1Switching to ethanol in Mato Grosso do Sul (hydrous parity ~$0.185/lb) given the better margin

Q&A Summary

What drives the expected second-half crushing acceleration and the outlook for sugar/ethanol prices and 2026 hedging?
Renato Pereira: after a rain-hit Q2, July crushing exceeded 1.5M tons with August daily records, so full-year crushing should match 2024; ethanol is favored (strong hydrous demand, E30 mandate, ~30% lower stocks, ~5-10% upside) and sugar should react as Brazilian TRS/yields disappoint - the company will accelerate 2026 hedging, having already hedged ~5% at $0.178/lb.
Has the Tether relationship changed strategy, and what about M&A in sugar and ethanol?
Mariano Bosch: Tether reinforces the existing disciplined, returns-focused culture; the Bitcoin-mining test is a 5% energy experiment. On M&A, many assets are for sale given weak results and the company is analyzing inorganic sugar/ethanol growth, but only at returns clearly above organic and while staying below ~2x EBITDA leverage.
Any details on the Bitcoin-mining partnership and on share liquidity after Tether?
Mariano Bosch: the arrangement is an early test on 5% of MS energy targeting an implied power price above US$80/MWh; terms are not finalized. Share liquidity remains reasonable and is above the company's 11-year historical average trading volume.

More on Adecoagro S.A.

Reported 2025-08-19 · figures from the Adecoagro S.A. Q2 2025 earnings call.

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