How much of a headwind were the January store closures, and what is the underlying quarter-to-date trend?
Roughly half of stores were closed about three days over a weekend, estimated at ~100 bps of comp headwind in Q4; excluding those days the business ran a positive mid-single-digit comp. January ran positive, February was strong with positive comps across every division, continuing into early March. Ammo improved through Q4 (from down high single digits to down low single digits) and turned positive in February, aided by current events.
Why does implied SG&A growth slow to ~2-3% in 2026 versus the 6-7% run rate?
The main driver of SG&A growth was store increases (16 in 2024 to 24 in FY2025); guiding to 20-25 stores (~8% unit growth) provides leverage. Q1 2025 carried $7.5 million of Jordan launch cost (145 shop doors) that will be smaller and shift to Q2 in 2026. Automation and efficiency efforts yield modest SG&A leverage at the guidance midpoint.
Why is the return to positive comps taking so long given the working initiatives?
The primary drag has been the pressured consumer, which prevented crossing into positive comp despite growing the top line for the first time since 2021. Management expects the culmination of self-help initiatives (dot-com up ~14%, strengthening new-store waterfall, loyalty credit card relaunch, work/western wear) plus external tailwinds to bend the curve to positive comps in 2026.
How are new-store economics and the profitability ramp performing?
Year-one stores are performing a little better than anticipated, entering the comp set after 14 months at mid-single-digit comps. Net CapEx is $2.5M-$3.5M per store plus incremental inventory, targeting a 20% ROIC. Legacy-market infills perform slightly better than new markets, and stores continue growing into years two and three.
How big is the new-store waterfall effect and how does loyalty/Mastercard compare?
The 2022-2024 vintage delivered mid-single-digit growth, roughly a 30 bps tailwind in 2025 that should come close to doubling in 2026. The loyalty relaunch is expected to provide a similar lift, though only for about a half year since the full relaunch kicks off heading into Father's Day.
Are the World Cup, tax refunds, and 250th anniversary worth the ~200-300 bps swing between low and high guidance?
Self-help initiatives alone get to the midpoint of the 2-5% range. At the low end, the three external events are fully negated by macro headwinds; at the high end they provide a net tailwind. Management estimated the World Cup at ~30 bps, roughly offset by the loyalty credit card, and stressed self-help drivers outweigh the external events.
How did categories perform in Q4 and what are the margin implications of the loyalty program?
Strength in bikes, fishing, outdoor cooking, apparel, electronics, and athletic footwear; softness in seasonal footwear, camping (lapping big drinkware), ammo, and ride-ons (tariff-driven assortment). The loyalty program bundles existing targeted discounts and is not expected to materially impact overall gross margins - more a repurposing of discounts toward targeted loyalty members.
How has the Jordan brand performed and could it unlock other premium brands?
Nike and Jordan combined grew high single digits (no prior-year Jordan comp). Academy is gaining access to more premium footwear (e.g., Vomero expanding to ~150 doors for back-to-school) and using the Jordan launch as a proof point with new brands. More brand news is expected at the April 7 Analyst Day.