Build-up of the 3.3% ticket increase (AUR vs UPT) and whether there was a temporary margin mismatch between prices taken and tariff costs flowing through the P&L, plus the Q4 and 2026 outlook
AURs were up mid-to-high single digits and UPT was down mid-single digits, showing some trade-off; AUR gains came mainly from clearance and promotion management with ticket increases as a last resort. On weighted-average cost, moving AURs up ahead of tickets produces a small initial-quarter margin bump. Of the 170 bps gross margin gain, ~120-130 bps was merchandise margin (inclusive of tariffs), 30 bps freight, 20 bps shrink. Q4 gross margin is guided flat at the midpoint, which management views as appropriate.
What price increases to expect in Q4 versus Q3, and whether that is the peak of increases
AURs are expected up high single to low double digits in Q4, then plateau at that level into Q1 and Q2 of 2026, before settling toward flat as the accelerated back-half tariffs are lapped.
Why is the implied Q4 comp guide range (roughly -3.5% to +3.5%) so wide, and what are the puts and takes?
The midpoint is flat. AURs are elevated (a load on the consumer) and are largely offset by unit degradation via traffic or UPT; the downside assumes that elasticity worsens while the upside depends on how the consumer responds. Localized weather variability also widens the range since Academy is not national.
Health of the Academy customer and how upper-income trade-in in Q3 compared to Q2
Management sees a real K-shaped economy: over-$100K households grew high single digits (down from double digits in Q1/Q2 but lapping strong prior-year growth), middle-income steady, and under-$50K down mid-single digits (though the decline improved versus the first half). The average customer is significantly healthier than a year ago due to trade-in from higher-income quintiles, effectively de-risking the customer portfolio.
Magnitude of the ammo impact given ammo/firearms is under ~10% of sales, and whether a positive comp is possible at the new stabilized ammo level
Ammo is roughly 5% of the business and was a 130 bps headwind to comp (vs the -90 bps total, implying +40 bps ex-ammo), attributed to lapping the prior-year pre-election run-up. If ammo holds at its current high-single-digit-negative level, the company believes it can post positive comps; only steeper declines would make it a bigger headwind.
Pressure points for Q4 gross margin given healthy inventory and strong Q3 merchandise margin
The main wildcard is the health of the 'choiceful' consumer and their take rate on the promotions Academy has built for holiday; there is little expected seasonal liability carryover, so the outcome hinges on how much customers buy on promotion.
Year-two and year-three comp trajectory for new stores and how the ramp evolves next year
New stores post positive comps in their first quarter in the comp set, but the 14th month tends to be a negative comp due to lapping grand-opening activity; years two and three show good strength across the board. The 26 stores in the Q3 comp set provided ~50 bps of comp tailwind, rising to 50 stores next year.
Contribution from inventory pulled forward ahead of tariffs and the margin benefit
There was no large margin uptick; the pull-forward allowed Academy to hold pricing at last year's levels on many categories through the holiday, protecting sales and offering value. Units per store were up ~6.5% in Q1 and ~4.5% in Q2 but are now down 0.3%, and management has no regrets about the pull-forward.
Why the higher-income cohort rose to ~40% of sales (from roughly a third) and how to retain them
It reflects both higher-income consumers seeking value and Academy's improved better/best assortment (Jordan, Burlebo, Turtlebox, Ray-Ban Meta, higher-priced bats and running shoes). Management sees this as additive and plans to keep building innovative brands while retaining value focus to keep and grow that customer.
The change to 20-25 stores for 2026 versus prior messaging of sequentially accelerating store growth
The focus is on identifying locations management is highly confident about; new-store guidance was paused mid-year to see how tariffs played out. Academy feels good about the 20-25 stores identified and the pipeline, and will share more on 2026 and the long-range plan on the next call and at an April 7 analyst event in New York.